Latin America Economics Update Chile’s budget expansion is built on solid foundations Chile’s 2012 draft budget sets out a 5% increase in public spending with no offsetting rise in taxes. On first inspection we would caution that some of the assumptions look to be too optimistic... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB supports banks, but drags heels on rates The ECB today opted to focus on unconventional rather than conventional monetary policy measures, leaving interest rates on hold but substantially increasing its support for the banking sector. But... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF aid crucial to heading off an external financing crisis North Africa’s hefty external financing requirements, coupled with turmoil in the global financial markets, have increased the risk that the region could be hit by a balance of payments crisis... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m decline in CoreLogic's measure of house prices in August may be the start of the renewed modest acceleration in price declines that we have been warning about. Prices may still stabilise... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Which markets are most at risk from excess retail supply? Yesterday’s retail sales data showed that domestic demand is weakening across most of Europe. And there is little reason to expect the pace of household spending to improve in 2012. Against that... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation has probably peaked Data released later this week are likely to show another pick-up in Brazilian inflation and will no doubt lead to fresh criticism of the decision to cut interest rates at August’s COPOM meeting. But... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update QE2 won't eliminate recession risks The MPC’s decision to re-launch its quantitative easing programme today confirms that the Committee finally recognises that the major threat to the UK is renewed recession, not inflation. But previous... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in inflation will be short-lived September’s data revealed a sharp rise in euro-zone HICP inflation from 2.5% to 3.0%, which appears to have been driven by a renewed rise in core price pressures as well as energy inflation. With... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) The latest fall in the Halifax house price index seems to echo recent downbeat news on the economy. While low interest rates make judging the timing difficult, the gloomy economic outlook suggests... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Bank recapitalisation unlikely to draw a line under the crisis 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia set to weaken but still outperform A slowdown in developed economies in 2012-13 is set to pull down growth in emerging Asia to a below-trend pace. However, the region’s healthy fundamentals mean that emerging Asia should once again be... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy stagnating at best The last month has brought further confirmation that the recovery has ground to a complete halt. Quarterly GDP growth was revised down from 0.2% to 0.1% in Q2. Even that growth was dependent on rises... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the world slipping back into recession? September’s purchasing managers’ surveys support our view that, for now, the world economy is slowing, but not heading for an outright recession. But advanced economies, particularly the eurozone, are... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update One last gasp in September before recovery peters out The services PMI showed activity in the tertiary sector increasing in September but that the outlook for Q4 is weak. The economy is becoming more reliant on public spending to keep it ticking over as... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary FX debt plan amounts to backdoor default Fresh concerns over the health of the Hungarian banking system have risen following the government’s policy to allow households to repay FX mortgages at preferential exchange rates. Our best estimate... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) September's mortgage applications figures suggest that the decrease in conforming mortgage loan limits at the start of this week won't significantly reduce mortgage demand. Nevertheless, the weak... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
