UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The continued weakness of the money supply figures supports the case for thinking that inflation will fall back sharply next year and therefore bolsters the arguments of those on the Monetary Policy... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Laying the groundwork for policy loosening At the press conference following his final meeting as ECB President, Jean-Claude Trichet will strike a more downbeat tone, suggesting that interest rate cuts are not far off. We are still pencilling... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's balance sheet revisited In light of recent events, this Update provides a brief snapshot of the health of Russia’s public finances. The short point is that while public debt is very low, the budget position is increasingly... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) Recent news shows that many of the euro-zone’s fiscally-challenged economies are broadly on track to meet their 2011 budget deficit goals. Nonetheless, we continue to think that several of the region... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Retail sales slump due to special factors but outlook weak The sharp fall in retail sales in August was mainly due to the unwinding of special factors that have supported spending over the last three months. Nonetheless, consumer confidence remains low and... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Sep.) September’s fall in the EC measure of business and consumer sentiment adds to evidence that the euro-zone economy is on the brink of recession. 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (August) In August, net lending to the economy as a whole rebounded strongly from July’s weak result. But lending to commercial property was an exception. There seems little prospect that new credit for... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Sep.) & Mortgage Lending (Aug.) The unexpectedly strong rise in mortgage approvals, combined with a marginal rise in the Nationwide house price index, might suggest that the risk of further house price falls is receding. But, in our... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook No real recovery in sight A persistent deficit in demand means that even when house prices finally find a floor, which could happen next year, they won't rebound rapidly. Sustained price gains are unlikely until 2014 at the... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rate cuts back on the agenda for 2012 The rapid deterioration in the growth outlook for the developed world, and the deepening crisis in Europe in particular, should in time vindicate last month’s surprise (and controversial) decision by... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Aug.) August's durable goods orders data suggest that firms did not pull the plug on their investment spending in the wake of the turmoil in the financial markets. This supports our view that annualised GDP... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are we any closer to a Tobin tax? The widespread adoption of new Tobin-style levies on financial transactions remains unlikely, despite the latest endorsement from EC President Barroso today. Nonetheless, there is growing... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Proposed EFSF expansion is not all that it appears Emerging details about the recent proposal to supersize the euro-zone’s bail-out fund suggest that, at best, the plan is simply to use existing funds more imaginatively. Note that even this proposal... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Aug.) House prices softened in August. But the market appears to be becoming increasingly polarised along regional lines. London still looks reasonably resilient for now, whereas northern regions are... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) Today’s Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey suggested that the near-term outlook for residential property lending, if anything, may be slightly more positive than in the commercial property... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
