Europe Economics Update Is Greece’s second bail-out dead and buried? On the face of it, the recent fall in Greek sovereign CDS premia and press reports suggesting that Greece will receive the fourth tranche of loans from its bail-out package in March are encouraging... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Turkey’s commercial property market heading for another downturn? Q2 GDP data from Turkey look pretty encouraging. Yet we think that the economy is on track for a hard landing next year. This alone does not alter our views on the prospects for commercial property... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery going from bad to worse Recent developments have only reinforced our long-held belief that the economic recovery will remain unusually lacklustre for several more years. We now expect GDP growth of just 1.5% in 2012 and 2.0%... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Weak wage growth to underpin fragile domestic demand Mexico’s status as a low productivity economy means that jobs are created even at low rates of GDP growth. The problem, however, is that a surplus pool of labour, coupled with a growing population and... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deepening debt crisis points to new recession The debt crisis in the euro-zone has escalated rapidly over recent months and could now come to a head sooner than we had previously anticipated. This is likely to have severe near- to medium-term... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics (Q2) Credit conditions may have held broadly stable in Q2, but while the availability of mortgage lending is this tight, the influence on housing market activity and prices is still downwards. 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s consumer prices figures brought further hope that the peak in inflation is close. Lingering inflation worries amongst some MPC members should not stand in the way of more quantitative easing... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Survey & CLG House Prices (Aug/Jul) The latest RICS housing market survey pointed to the return of buyer caution in August, as sales dropped to their lowest level in over two years. London remained the exception to the rule, with house... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Import data point to recovery in domestic demand Neither rising wages nor growing fears about the global outlook seem to be causing any difficulties for China’s exporters. Meanwhile, the latest import data are consistent with a strong pick-up in... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Is the squeeze on real household income over? Real personal disposable income growth slowed to a snail pace during the first half of this year, depressing consumer spending in the process. Compared to a year ago, second-quarter real income... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recession appears over but any recovery is fragile The government’s Business Outlook Survey provides further evidence that the Japanese economy returned to growth in Q3, which should also be reflected in next month’s Tankan. However, the recovery has... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: Q2 growth strong, but recession threat mounting On the face of it, Turkish Q2 GDP data – which surprised on the upside – is positive news. However, it merely confirms our view that the Turkish economy is overheating and it is now more likely than... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s data show that a sharp fall in food price inflation helped to push headline inflation in Egypt down to its lowest level since the end of 2007. Core inflation also fell. But, due to concerns... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tightening financial conditions cast more doubt Judging by the declines in the Bank of Canada's Financial Conditions Index (FCI), financial conditions appear to have tightened recently, despite somewhat lower bond yields. Although the amount of... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Policymakers lay out the case for more action Policymakers were back in the spotlight last week, with hopes growing that we could now see further monetary and fiscal stimulus. Unfortunately, we doubt that the Fed will have much success with what... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
