Asia Economics Weekly Why India will not follow Brazil in cutting rates Given the sharp deterioration in the global economic outlook in the past couple of months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will give serious consideration to downside risks to growth when it meets on... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Core and periphery still at loggerheads More signs emerged last week that policymakers in the core economies are unwilling to soften the conditions attached to current or future bail-outs. For now, though, Greece looks set to bow to EC, ECB... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC unlikely to wait for long We have long argued that the MPC’s next move would be to loosen monetary policy by restarting quantitative easing (QE). But suggestions that they might do so as soon as last week always looked a bit... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The drop in August employment was disappointing and points to modest growth in household spending this quarter. The only redeeming quality in the jobs report was the rotation from part-time to full... 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: in no rush to follow Brazil’s lead on rates Peru’s central bank (BCRP) kept its benchmark lending rate at 4.25% last night. While it appears to have dropped its tightening bias, we believe that it is premature to forecast any policy easing over... 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial production: slump on the horizon July’s Industrial production data, although not as bad as feared, were poor nonetheless and confirmed that growth is weakening across Central and Eastern Europe. What’s more, the disappointing PMIs... 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slower inflation and continued weakness in consumption Inflation fell in August and is likely to end the year much lower than today. This should open the door for policymakers to relax controls on lending, particularly if export demand slows 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Aug.) August’s producer prices figures provided the strongest indication yet that cost pressures in the industrial sector have peaked. 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update American Jobs Act is big but politically polarising President Obama's newly proposed $450bn job creation bill is equivalent to nearly 3% of GDP, so if it was passed by Congress as it stands it would certainly have a significant impact on GDP growth in... 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Too early to expect a strong rebound in the Egyptian economy The preliminary data from Egypt suggest that GDP grew by 1.8% y/y in the 2010/11 fiscal year (which runs from July to June). The output data (if not revised when more details are released on the 22nd)... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Tide starting to turn on interest rates Central banks in Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea and the Philippines all kept their main policy rates on hold today, as expected, reflecting heightened concern over the outlook for the global economy. This... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB paving the way for rate cuts After leaving interest rates on hold at 1.5% today, the ECB struck a downbeat tone regarding the economic outlook and acknowledged that risks to price stability are no longer on the upside, supporting... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) July's international trade data provides further evidence that the economy rebounded from the disappointing second-quarter contraction, growing by an estimated 2.5% annualised this quarter. Whether or... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The sharp decline in the trade deficit in July is one more reason to believe that annualised third-quarter GDP growth will come in around 2.5%. With global demand clearly weakening, however, the... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
