US Economics Weekly Fed increasingly likely to launch Operation Twist On balance, we still think that the acceleration in core inflation will prevent the Fed from undertaking a third round of quantitative easing, even after the disappointing August payrolls figures. The... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Lack of lending will continue to hinder recovery Last week’s bank lending data underlined the likelihood that ongoing constraints on the supply of lending and credit to business and households will continue to act as a major hindrance on the pace of... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone heading back into recession? The latest data have provided considerable support to our long-held view that the euro-zone recovery would grind to a halt. For now, we continue to expect a long period of near economic stagnation... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US Treasuries continue to prosper The 10-year US Treasury yield fell sharply again in August, driven by a further reassessment of the prospects for interest rates. The latter was probably prompted by growing signs of an economic... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Q2 GDP data solid, Q3 looking dire Brazil’s economy grew by a solid if not spectacular 0.8% q/q in Q2, but leading indicators suggest that it will struggle to expand at half that pace in Q3. 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) Even after allowing for the disruption of the strike by 45,000 Verizon workers last month, the stagnation in payroll employment is an ominous sign. The monthly gain in payrolls has now been below 100... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Vehicle sales: a good indicator of retail spending? Domestic vehicle sales in Japan appear to be closely correlated with both consumer confidence and retail sales. Recent sharp gyrations in the monthly retail sales data make understanding their... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Defying gravity The slowdown in the global economy and nervousness in financial markets undermined the prices of industrial metals and oil in August. Admittedly, these prices ended the month on a more positive note... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Consensus Forecasts (Q3) and Construction PMI (Aug.) The message from the latest IPF Consensus forecasts is that the commercial property market as a whole remains set for a few slow but steady years. We broadly share that view, but are much more... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will a fall in the oil price affect Saudi Arabia’s spending plans? Concerns that the global economy may fall into recession again have increased the likelihood of a drop in the oil price, which in turn poses some downside risks to Saudi Arabia’s economy. Indeed, a... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico most likely to follow Brazil’s lead? The surprise decision to cut Brazilian interest rates earlier this week has raised the prospect of rate cuts elsewhere in Latin America. If the developed world does eventually slide into recession... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s current account deficit: recession in the making? Turkey’s economy looks increasingly in danger of going from boom to bust. Rapid growth in domestic demand has led to a surge in imports and a widening current account deficit that, in light of recent... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will other major emerging markets follow Brazil's lead? 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The marginal decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.6 in August, from 50.9, will further ease fears that the US economy is headed for a recession. At that level, the index is actually consistent... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Premier Wen unshaken by market turmoil Policymakers in other emerging markets may be reassessing their options after a month of dire data from the major Western economies. But the government in Beijing appears confident that China can... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
