Rising layoffs hint at more permanent slowdown

The fact that the recent slowdown in jobs growth is mostly due to a rise in firings, rather than a fall in hiring, suggests that a rapid rebound in non-farm payroll employment is not imminent. Our econometric model, which incorporates a range of labour market indicators, implies that payrolls rose by just 50,000 in July. That would confirm that the economy is still not growing at a pace fast enough to reduce the unemployment rate.