US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jun.) It looks like the annual rate of headline CPI inflation peaked at 3.6% in June, but core inflation edged up to 1.6% last month, from 1.5%, and will continue to climb over the next few months. By the... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: interest rates pause for breath The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) as expected held interest rates at 5.25% last night. Strong domestic conditions and above-target inflation make further increases likely, but we are nearing the end of... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Why has industrial property income fared so poorly? To us, the prospects for consumer spending on leisure services remain pretty good and anecdotal evidence certainly suggests that institutional buyers are increasingly targeting leisure property. We... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How vulnerable are Treasuries to a US credit rating downgrade? 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Growing apart or coming together? - The regional outlook for the economy The common perception is that the fiscal squeeze will prompt the traditional North-South divide to widen. However, we think it is more likely that the different regions of the UK will see a more... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Don't read too much into seasonal boost The recent rises in house prices are nothing more than the normal seasonal uplift triggered by the better weather and the end of the school year. After stripping out such seasonal effects, prices on... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Rising financial risks give further reason for pause It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, we think the Bank will not offer any hint of imminent rate hikes, while... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can it get any worse for the Arab world’s equity markets? Most equity markets in the Arab world have bounced back from the lows reached in March when regional political risks were at their highest. Since the initial bounce though, overall market performance... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Jun.) The level of retail sales has been pretty much unchanged in the three months to June, suggesting that annualised real consumption growth in the second quarter was just 0.6% and overall GDP growth was... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy tightening required in India Today’s price data from India show that both headline and core inflation rose further in June. What’s more, we expect the headline rate to reach double-digit levels in the third quarter. While growth... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would a US sovereign credit downgrade rattle Treasuries? Moody’s has become the second major rating agency to put the long-term credit rating of the US government on review for possible downgrade. We think investors in the Treasury market were right to... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore’s economic weakness will be short-lived Singapore’s advance estimate of GDP in the second quarter shows that the economy contracted due to weakness in the manufacturing sector. However, the expansion should resume in the second half of this... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How significant is the slump in Brussels office take-up? It is tempting to dismiss the recent slump in office market take-up in Brussels as noise in an otherwise positive trend. But it could reflect the early stages of a labour market slowdown as firms... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are mortgage approvals still a good lead indicator for house prices? The fact that the relationship between house prices and mortgage approvals has loosened over recent years does not mean that it has lost all its value. But in the absence of fresh, sharp falls in... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s policy rate has further to rise The Bank of Korea (BoK) held its base rate at 3.25% today, as expected. Nonetheless, the policy rate is still below pre-crisis levels, while core inflation has further to climb. The upshot is that the... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
