Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry likely to slow in the second half A decline in China's pig population at the turn of the year is now resulting in a surge in pork prices that probably pushed consumer price inflation above 6% y/y last month. Price pressures for non... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Prospects for monetary policy should support German Bunds A decline in China's pig population at the turn of the year is now resulting in a surge in pork prices that probably pushed consumer price inflation above 6% y/y last month. Price pressures for non... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What do the leading indicators tell us about the outlook? Evidence has mounted over the past month that China’s economy is slowing. In this China Watch we take a closer look at China’s leading indicators for clues about the outlook. We also preview the... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s monetary tightening has not ended Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept its policy rate at 3.0% today whereas both we and the consensus had anticipated a 25bp hike. Malaysia’s central bank instead opted to raise its reserve requirement... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB takes a hard line After hiking interest rates to 1.5% as expected, the ECB took a hard line today on both conventional policy and the prospect of Greek debt restructuring. We think that it will eventually soften on... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus How does speculation affect commodity prices? Changes in supply and in the demand from consumers can only explain part of the recent swings in commodity prices, with the rest largely due to speculation. What’s more, speculation can affect prices... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack House price indices diverge More properties are coming onto the market but buyers remain in relatively short supply hampered by tight credit conditions and increasingly, renewed uncertainty about the economic outlook. The... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s twin deficits cloud an otherwise bright outlook Poland’s economy remains in something of a ‘sweet spot’ for now, but recent upward revisions to the current account shortfall reinforce our long-standing concerns about the country’s twin deficits. In... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s sharp increase in German industrial production suggested that the euro-zone’s largest economy was still performing very well, but we doubt that this will last. 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Extra QE more likely than a rate rise With the economic recovery still showing few signs of regaining momentum, the case for raising interest rates is looking weak. Indeed, we think that over the next couple of years renewed quantitative... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Why do countries default and what are the consequences? History suggests that in many cases a sovereign default ultimately proves to be a good thing for the country concerned, as it can set the stage for economic recovery. This is more likely to be the... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (May) May’s rise in manufacturing output only just offset April’s bank holiday-related drop, adding to other evidence suggesting that the industrial recovery is weakening. 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (May) Core machinery orders have managed to avoid any negative fallout from March’s disaster and continued on their gentle upward trend in May. But they remain a long way below their pre-financial crisis... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: hard landing on the horizon Growth in Argentina has shown few signs of slowing in 2011 and we remain concerned about overheating and a hard landing further ahead. Excessively loose policy continues to fuel booming domestic... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
