Pick-up in GDP growth no thanks to consumers

Our calculations suggest that GDP growth accelerated a little to 2.3% annualised in the second quarter, from 1.9% in the first, despite the fact that consumption growth apparently slowed to less than 1%. The near-stagnation in real consumption is mostly explained by a contraction in spending on motor vehicles, food and energy. While we do expect real consumption growth to rebound in the second half of this year, as falling prices provide a boost to real incomes, that rebound isn't going to be anything spectacular.