Businesses poised for employee hiring spree?

Businesses are poised for an employee hiring spree, judging by the upbeat second quarter Business Outlook Survey results. Among the firms surveyed from late May to mid-June, the balance of opinion on hiring intentions rose to its highest level on record. Normally, such a dramatic improvement is broadly consistent with average monthly job gains in the range of 25,000 to 50,000. Given the renewed aversion to risk in global financial markets this month, however, we suspect that actual hiring might turn out to be at the low end of that range.