Weak occupier markets will act as a drag on property returns

Our assessment is that average property yields will more or less remain at current levels for the next 12 to 18 months and IPD all-capital values will now avoid the modest falls that we had previously envisaged.  But this change is not big enough to alter the view that total returns over 2011-15 will average between 8% and 9% per year.  Job cuts and tax rises will knock household finances and spending, with retail property returns over the forecast horizon set to lag behind the other main sectors.