UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar.) The latest rise in the Nationwide house price index adds to a number of recent data releases suggesting that prices may have stabilised in recent months. Although the extent of any further house price... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Commodity prices drive abrupt rebalancing of China's trade High commodity prices have achieved what the last Five-Year Plan and a string of summits with key trading partners could not: a rebalancing of Chinese trade. In this China Watch we consider the... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Could the recovery cope with a rate rise? There seems to be an assumption that a modest rise in interest rates, of say 25bps or 50bps, would be relatively harmless for the real economy. But we think that even a minor policy tightening could... 30th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka set to sustain above-trend growth this year Data released today show that Sri Lanka’s economy grew by 8.0% in 2010 as a whole, as we had long been expecting. The central bank (CBSL) left policy rates unchanged at its meeting in March, but we... 30th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Mar.) March’s fall in the EC measure of business and consumer sentiment provides some tentative signs that the euro-zone recovery may begin to slow before too long, suggesting that an April rate hike by the... 30th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) Japanese industrial output edged up in February, but will have collapsed in March. Production could easily fall by 10% in just one month in the wake of the Tohoku-Pacific Ocean earthquake, which alone... 30th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How will reconstruction be financed? Japan’s economy will eventually recover from the Tohoku-Pacific Ocean earthquake as the initial disruption to activity is replaced by a surge in spending on reconstruction. However, the boost to... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam to continue focusing on inflation risks Vietnam’s Q1 GDP figures were released today and show that growth eased at the start of the year. We expect the expansion to stay on a weaker track this year given policymakers’ ongoing efforts to... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update ECB rate hikes won't prompt knee-jerk response in CEE The likelihood that the ECB will raise interest rates next month increases the chances that central banks in Emerging Europe will tighten monetary policy too. But the bigger point remains unchanged –... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Commodity price spike adds fuel to the inflation fire The recent spike in commodity prices is a double edged sword for Latin America. Given that most countries are net commodity exporters, there will be some boost to growth. But at the same time, higher... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response House Prices (Jan.) The housing market began 2011 in the same vein as it ended 2010, with prices heading south. Moreover, while the latest risk retention housing reform proposals are good for the long-term health of the... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Public finances data for February revealed a familiar picture, with Spain leading the way with respect to its fiscal tightening plans while Greece continued to lag behind. 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Feb) Net new lending to standing commercial property in February was positive. However, given that banks’ exposure to property remains high, we doubt that lending flows are about to surge. But today’s data... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest set of monetary indicators add to the reasons to think that medium-term price pressures in the economy are still very weak and that inflation will therefore fall back next year. 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
