UK Economics Chart Pack Spending slowdown seems underway The weather-related volatility of the past few months has made reading the underlying trend of consumer spending difficult. However, it is increasingly looking like consumers have become much more... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth to slow in the second half The recovery in Emerging Europe remains broadly on track. GDP growth rates are likely to prove solid, if not spectacular, in a number of countries over the coming years with Turkey, Poland and, in the... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese bail-out now even more likely The fall of Portugal’s Government makes it even more likely that the country will follow Greece and Ireland in accepting a bail-out. But it may also add to the growing concerns over the prospect of... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Investor activity softens but UK property still a key target Central London offices were once again the only markets to see higher rental values in February. West End office rental values, for example, were up by more than 1%m/m but, by contrast, shopping... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Retail Sales (Feb 11) February’s official retail sales figures added to the increasing amount of evidence suggesting that consumer spending growth has slowed sharply since the initial bounce in spending at the start of the... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) March’s small fall in the euro-zone composite PMI does little to alter the view that the economy made a strong start to 2011 and that the ECB will push ahead with its planned interest rate hike in... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for a challenging year Today’s Q4 GDP figures confirm that New Zealand’s recovery was struggling to gain traction at the end of last year. Growth will be weak in the near term following the recent earthquakes, but we expect... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade makes strong start to 2011 The latest data show that world trade grew strongly in January and that emerging markets continue to outperform advanced economies in this respect. This is consistent with the evidence from purchasing... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) The 16.9% m/m decline in new home sales to a record low of only 250,000 annualised in February, from 301,000 the month before, underlines just how bad conditions in the housing market still are. 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) The 16.9% m/m decline in new home sales to a record low of only 250,000 annualised in February, from 301,000 the month before, underlines just how bad conditions in the housing market still are. 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT steps up pace of tightening Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to raise bank reserve requirements by a massive 400bp should help to calm market fears that it has fallen behind the curve in the face of booming... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update GDP likely to contract for three quarters The range of views on the impact of the earthquake on Japan’s GDP remains remarkably wide and government estimates of the cost of repairing the damage, published today, appear to have caused even more... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2011: Still banking on Plan A The Budget was a fairly cautious affair, with the Chancellor introducing a fiscally neutral package of measures and hence sticking closely to the existing austerity plans. Nonetheless, the Government... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Budget 2011 - No short-term fixes for property Given the degree of overvaluation in the residential market and the fragile economic backdrop, we are not convinced of the merits, or the likely success, of the Budget’s attempt to stimulate first... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Natural disasters vs. financial shocks The economic costs of natural disasters, although nowhere near as important as the loss of life, are typically much less than those of major financial shocks. A discussion of why this is the case... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Feb 11) After falling fairly steadily through 2010, the latest rise suggests that mortgage approvals for house purchase may be finding a floor. But the bigger picture is that, with approvals for house... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
