Global Economics Update Is gold heading for a replay of 1980? One obvious beneficiary of the continuing turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa is the price of gold, which has again popped above $1,400 per oz. Indeed, there are plenty of parallels with the... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) The hawkish tone of February’s UK MPC minutes suggests that the chances of a near-term interest rate rise are higher than previously thought. Indeed, we would now put the chances of a May hike at... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jan.) The marginal rise in total mortgage lending in January is not particularly encouraging, given that its makes up only one-quarter of the previous month’s fall. Weak demand and hefty refinancing... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jan.) Unexpected weakness in exports and a pick-up in imports resulted in a rare trade deficit (before seasonal adjustment) in January. The consensus view that GDP will quickly rebound from the fall in the... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Another year of falling prices House prices will decline by at least 5% this year. The real danger is that a vicious circle of falling prices and rising foreclosures drags prices down even further. 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Set for above-trend growth GDP growth across Emerging Asia has slowed, but is likely to pick up again soon. Domestic demand, trade between the emerging markets, as well as policy flexibility, will cushion the downside... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response House Prices (Q4) & Confidence (Feb.) The further fall in the Case-Shiller measure of national house prices at the end of last year took prices to a new cycle low, meaning that a double-dip is now officially underway. Prices are likely to... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle Eastern states still need Western allies At first glance, the West looks set to be amongst the biggest losers from the political turmoil hitting the Arab world. The toppled regimes in Egypt and Tunisia were staunch Western allies. The same... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Spain won over the markets for good? There have recently been signs that Spain may be starting to persuade the markets that it is not in as dire a position as some of the other peripheral economies. While this provides some hope that the... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does the rise in transaction-based yields tell us? One interpretation of recent Propertydata.com figures, which show rising average transaction-based commercial property yields, is that consensus forecasts for capital values to fall by 2% or so this... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) January’s public finance figures provided reassurance that the Government is on track to meet this year’s borrowing forecasts. However, we continue to think that the slowing recovery will mean that... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is inflation eroding China’s competitive edge? The high level of consumer price inflation in China is a poor guide to how the competitiveness of its exporters is changing. Foodstuffs apart, factory gate prices are today rising only slightly faster... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nudging up our forecasts for Mexican growth Mexico’s Q4 GDP data (released this afternoon) were stronger than expected. With renewed fiscal stimulus in the US likely to give a further boost to the recovery over the coming quarters, we are... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What does the Libyan crisis mean for oil prices? Thus far we have taken a relatively sanguine view of the global economic and market fall-out from the political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa. The fact that the unrest has spread to... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary rates on hold but doubts over fiscal plans persist The National Bank of Hungary kept rates unchanged at 6% earlier today, as expected, bringing to an end a short-lived tightening cycle that had spanned three months. Inflation is likely to slow over... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
