Europe Commercial Property Update Q4 2010 RICS global survey: too gloomy on the Netherlands? There are certainly some reasons to suggest that the prospects for rental value and capital value growth in the Netherlands are weaker than in most euro-zone markets. However, we think that latest... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's inflation still warrants further tightening Yesterday’s wholesale prices data show headline inflation is falling. But inflation remains too high for comfort so we continue to expect the Reserve Bank (RBI) to raise rates by a further 50bp by mid... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) & Empire State Index (Feb.) The retail sector started the year on a soft note, suggesting that consumption growth is losing momentum. This is perhaps even more worrying at a time when spending should be receiving a boost from... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan's assessment still too sanguine The conclusion of the Bank of Japan’s two-day Policy Board meeting was as close as these occasions can be to a non-event. However, the Bank’s economic view (upgraded today) looks over-optimistic and... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery continues but low hanging fruit has been picked The key message from the raft of Q4 GDP data released today is that the region’s recovery is continuing but that the underlying pace of growth is now starting to slow in a number of countries. 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4) The latest RICS data contained few surprises. Most importantly, they tend to indicate that the downturn in average rental values is now at an end. However, they also square with our view that any rise... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan.) January’s UK consumer prices figures came as something of a relief given the potential for another nasty surprise this month. Although inflation could yet rise further over the next few months, we... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The modest rise in euro-zone GDP growth in Q4 is likely to have been partly down to one-off weather-related factors, suggesting that the recovery may regain momentum at the start of this year... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation falls well short of expectations Consumer price inflation last month was well below expectations. Bank lending soared, as usual at this time of year, but the People’s Bank does seem to have had some success in slowing the pace of... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank becoming more hawkish As expected, the Swedish Riksbank responded to the economy’s ongoing robust revival by raising interest rates and revising up its interest rate forecast. Nonetheless, we still think that weaker than... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Higher mortgage rates doing little to dent affordability The recent rise in mortgage rates to a 10-month high has done little to dent affordability. Even a doubling in rates would leave our long-term measure of affordability below that seen before the... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What should we make of surging share buy-backs? One argument put forward for the rally in the US equity market is that share buy-backs are booming. This argument has its theoretical shortcomings, especially if the share buy-backs are financed with... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Should share buy-backs be boosting the US equity market? 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the resilience of corporate profits last? Corporate profits held up remarkably well during the recent economic downturn. But a closer look at the factors that explain this resilience suggests that profits over the next couple of years are... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Funding problems to keep lid on bank lending The Chancellor is upping the pressure on banks to lend more. But with banks’ funding problems really coming home to roost this year, he might soon feel like he is banging his head against a brick wall... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese economy stumbles as political tensions resurge The renewed contraction in Portuguese GDP in Q4 last year underlines the fragility of the outlook for the economy. With political tensions rising and government bond yields uncomfortably high... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
