Asia Economics Update Thailand set for strong growth Today’s Q4 GDP data for Thailand show that the economy returned to q/q growth at the end of last year, as expected. Growth is likely to pick up during the course of this year, led by strengthening... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hungarian and Romanian commercial property markets to lag behind The latest RICS global survey presents a more optimistic outlook for capital value growth in Hungary and Romania than our current forecasts imply. But we think that surveyors may be overstating the... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German Ifo (Feb.) February’s euro-zone PMI and German Ifo surveys suggest that the euro-zone and German economies have started 2011 with a bang. Nonetheless, divergences between the core and peripheral euro-zone... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fears of rising pay settlements overdone Tentative evidence of a rise in pay settlements has raised concerns that the much-feared wage-price spiral is kicking off. However, we remain sanguine about the outlook for pay growth and continue to... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 struggles to find common ground on imbalances This weekend’s meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors appears to have achieved as little as expected. The most substantive decision was to agree a list of indicators which will be... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Revamped data show property prices still rising slowly Much of the initial reaction to China’s new property price statistics has focused on the fact that property prices are “still rising”. But the median increase in new residential prices among the... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery cannot rely on exports alone Export-oriented manufacturing now appears to be picking up again after the double-dip in the second half of 2010. However, this is not enough on its own to justify a much more optimistic assessment of... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia set for good growth Malaysia posted its fastest annual GDP growth for a decade last year, and we expect the economy to expand at a healthy pace in 2011. Tough conditions in the West are likely to weigh on exports and... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A consumption storm For the first time in a year, real consumption probably declined in January. Last month's unusually heavy snowfalls may be partly to blame. But the bad weather probably only exacerbated the slowing... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Modest revival continues, but peripheral concerns remain On the face of it, the news that the euro-zone economy expanded by just 0.3% in Q4 was pretty disappointing. But note that bad weather in Germany might have reduced euro-zone quarterly GDP growth by 0... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Near-term rate outlook still finely balanced We readily admit that we toyed last week with putting a near-term rate rise into our forecast. But, on balance, we are still not quite convinced that a rate rise is now more likely than not. 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Post snow bounce-back unlikely to last Snow effects are obviously distorting the picture at the moment. But as far as we can tell, the underlying recovery may be struggling a bit. 18th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) It is just a matter of time before the recent rapid increases in agricultural commodity prices lead to higher consumer price inflation. Even though the headline CPI inflation rate edged down to 2.3%... 18th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy makes dire start to 2011 January’s activity data from Russia suggest that the economy made a dire start to 2011. Of course, it is unwise to read too much into one month’s data. What’s more, with oil prices currently over... 18th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s official UK retail sales figures showed that, like the rest of the economy, high street spending bounced back at the start of the year after December’s snowrelated dip. However, the... 18th February 2011 · 1 min read
