Japan Chart Pack Stuck on the runway Officials and most commentators expect GDP to take off smoothly again in Q1 after the contraction in Q4. However, the latest monthly data suggest that Japan’s economy is taxiing on just one engine –... 25th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Feb.) The further rise in German CPI inflation in February will do nothing to ease the ECB’s worries about building inflationary pressures. But we continue to think that the pickin German inflation is... 25th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Feb) On average, respondents to the IPF Consensus still expect all-property capital values to edge lower this year, though the scale of the potential fall has been trimmed. Even so, some forecasters think... 25th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia tightens once again Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to increase both bank reserve requirements and its key interest rates by 25bps is a further sign that rising inflation is moving up the government... 25th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Output, Income and Expenditure (Q4) The slight downward revision to UK GDP in Q4 means that, snow effects aside, activity is now estimated to have contracted a touch at the end of last year. Although the economy bounced back in January... 25th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The latest euro-zone money and credit data continue to suggest that underlying inflationary pressures remain subdued. But needless to say, the recent surge in the oil price, coupled with the fact that... 25th February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trapped in the impossible trinity Policymakers in Latin America face an awkward choice. Either they must fight inflation with stronger currencies but at the expense of a squeeze on domestic manufacturers, or they can limit currency... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls to rebound as weather effects are reversed After having been depressed by the unseasonably heavy snowfall in January, we anticipate that payroll employment rebounded by about 250,000 in February. The underlying story, though, is one in which... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who is most vulnerable to high oil prices? India and Thailand would struggle most within Asia if oil prices were to remain at their current level. China is less reliant on oil than most in the region. In general, Asia’s strong growth would... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch No interest rate hikes this year It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its key policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, we think the Bank is unlikely to change its stance on monetary... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) & House Prices (Q4) The outlook for new home sales will remain bleak as long as foreclosed homes can be snapped up at heavily discounted prices. Meanwhile, by excluding many foreclosed sales, the FHFA index may not be... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is a Portuguese bail-out just around the corner? The recent increase in Portuguese bond yields will increase the pressure on the Government to accept a bail-out. Nonetheless, the Government may resist requesting outside support for a little while... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Jan.) The manufacturing recovery is still picking up momentum. The 2.7% m/m increase in durable goods orders in January is better than it looks when we take into account the big revision to December's... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will Saudi Arabia's latest stimulus be enough? Saudi Arabia’s latest fiscal boost is important but not the only reason why the country is unlikely to face civil unrest soon. In fact, much of the $36 billion announced yesterday was already part of... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB's hawkish stance to harden The recent batch of reasonably upbeat economic data, coupled with further signs that price pressures may be building, will ensure that President Trichet continues to strike a hawkish tone at next week... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
