Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates edge higher, other measures to be deployed The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.5% last night. With the economy booming and inflation pressures building, further rate hikes will probably follow over the... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices don't explain the rise in Turkey's external deficit Turkey reported another large shortfall on its current account in December, which pushed the deficit for last year as a whole to 6.4% of GDP. Rising oil prices partly explain the increase in the... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Producer Prices (Jan.) Today’s producer prices figures will add to concerns about the persistence of inflationary pressures. However, we still expect inflation to fall sharply next year. 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam still needs to do much more Vietnam’s central bank today devalued the reference rate for the dong by around 9%. The move was bigger than expected but long overdue. To be a success, today’s adjustment has to be complemented soon... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) The sharp increase in food prices ahead of Chinese New Year is no surprise, but evidence of rising non-food price inflation is a greater cause for concern. Still, if we are right that economic growth... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal remains on the frontline After a month of respite, the surge in Portuguese ten year government bond yields to new euro-era highs has reignited fears that Portugal may still need outside support. Even if Portugal isn’t forced... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes in the Philippines only a matter of time The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.0% today, as expected. We are sticking with our long-held view that rates need to move up this year to ensure that inflation... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India stocks still look good for the long term Indian equities have fallen sharply since mid-November and the pain will probably continue for a few more months yet. Nevertheless, we anticipate that the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy tightening... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's cuts look big but off-balance sheet spending still key Last night’s announcement of budget cuts worth R$50bn (1.3% of GDP) should mean that Brazil’s government meets – or perhaps even betters – its ‘official’ target for the primary budget surplus of 3% of... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC should hold its nerve There had been little to suggest that the Committee had altered its view since the last meeting, so the no-change decision today was of little surprise. However, the next meeting – coinciding with May... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s official industrial production figures suggested that, like the rest of the economy, the manufacturing recovery was blown off course by the bad weather at the end of the year. 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Buy-To-Let Lending (Q4) Buy-to-let (BTL) lending ended 2010 on a comparatively strong note. But the data were not quite as strong as they seem at first sight. 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (Q4) While the number of arrears and possessions cases fell in the fourth quarter, the ongoing squeeze on household incomes from tax rises and public spending cuts, as well as the likelihood of a further... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What next for UK markets? Expectations of tighter UK monetary policy have pushed sterling up against the US dollar, driven gilt yields higher, and contributed to an underperformance of the domestic stock market. We continue to... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Project Merlin no magic fix for bank lending We doubt that the lending commitments announced as part of today’s “Project Merlin” will lead to a significant pick-up in bank lending growth. 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
