UK Economics Update Is it time to inject some reality into inflation targeting? Inflation continues to be boosted by external factors over which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) can exercise little influence. One way to give the MPC more scope to help the economy could be to... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing investment decline likely to worsen The declining trend in housing starts supports our view that a housing correction is underway. The slump in new and existing home sales suggest that this slowdown will worsen next year, hitting the... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Rise in confidence never looked justified The rise in consumer confidence to a five-year high in November can’t be explained by developments in equity prices, gasoline prices, the labour market or the housing market. As such, it’s no surprise... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What to expect from emerging markets in 2013 Emerging markets (EMs) will remain a relative bright spot in 2013. But with export demand from the developed world likely to remain subdued and structural problems dragging on growth in many of the... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chavez's absence adds to the uncertainty in Venezuela Venezuelan economic policy looks set to remain in limbo until the future of the President Hugo Chávez is resolved. Devaluation of the bolivar, which we had expected early next year, may be delayed... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC decisions won’t prevent oil price falls This week’s OPEC meeting will be dominated by the tricky choice of a new Secretary-General, while the decision on output should be relatively simple. We agree with the consensus that the notional... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: incumbent victory reinforces positive outlook Allegations of vote rigging have clouded the general election in Ghana, but these shouldn’t undermine the overall positive impact that victory for incumbent president John Dramani Mahama should... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What’s needed for a stronger global recovery? If it were not for the euro-zone crisis, world economic growth would probably gather pace next year. Prospects for the US are brightening, there has been significant progress with private sector... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports disappoint Today’s Chinese trade data highlight the continued weakness in demand in the largest global consumer of commodities. The headline data did show commodity imports rising month-on-month but after... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy back in the spotlight The intended resignation of Italian technocrat Prime Minister Mario Monti is a timely reminder thatthe euro-zone debt crisis still goes way beyond the problems of Greece. 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: interest rate "hike" does not alter monetary stance The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left its benchmark lending rates on hold today, but hiked its overnight deposit rate by 25bps. Given the liquidity shortage in the interbank market and the fact that... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Situation bad, but not getting any worse The latest figures on Japan’s economy suggest that it has already fallen into recession and is unlikely to emerge before next year. However, whilst the economic backdrop is bad, it is at least not... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Trade/French & Italian Industrial Prod’n (Oct.) October’ trade and industrial production figures for the euro-zone’s largest three economies brought further evidence that the recession in the region will deepen in the fourth quarter and that it has... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Signs economic recovery is faltering Today’s disappointing trade data have added to our doubts about the sustainability of China’s rebound. The weekend’s figures on investment and industrial production were more encouraging but they... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey struggling but current account limits room for easing The latest data from Turkey paint a pretty gloomy picture: Q3 GDP was weaker than expected and October’s industrial production figures suggest that the economy has made a poor start to Q4. The central... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
