OPEC decisions won’t prevent oil price falls

This week’s OPEC meeting will be dominated by the tricky choice of a new Secretary-General, while the decision on output should be relatively simple. We agree with the consensus that the notional ceiling will be kept at 30mn barrels per day, at least for now. OPEC probably will cut output next year, but only in response to an increase in non-OPEC supply and persistent sluggishness in demand.

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