Capital Daily Outperformance of emerging market equities unlikely to last 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilt market takes broken debt rule in its stride As we had predicted beforehand, the Office for Budget Responsibility’s assessment that the Chancellor will break his debt rule did not prompt government bond yields to rise. Indeed, both gilt yields... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will retail rents in Amsterdam and Helsinki continue to trend up? The relatively strong rise in Helsinki retail rental values seen since 2010 is not difficult to square with the underlying health of the Finnish economy. But it is less straightforward to justify... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA report further eases supply fears The latest “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” published today by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) has relieved concerns about the supply of wheat, whilst the prospects... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB solved the crisis? Recent actions by euro-zone policymakers and the ECB in particular have prompted some commentators to conclude that the region has turned a corner. But we still expect the crisis to deepen again soon... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Weak economic outlook points to prolonged rental stagnation Rather than the direct measures announced (e.g. REIT changes), the more relevant aspect of the Autumn Statement for the commercial property sector was probably the confirmation that a strong economic... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct. 12) October's flat export volumes are a discouraging sign for fourth-quarter GDP growth. In addition, the widespread decline in imports hints at a slowing domestic economy. Overall, the data suggest that... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Surge in HARP refinancing continues The typical guarantee fee charged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to lenders rose to a high of 46 basis points in early December. Mortgage borrowers will soon see fees rise as a result, but this will... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct. 12) October’s trade release is the latest to look worse than it really is due to the effects of superstorm Sandy. Nonetheless, another year of tepid global growth will mean that the external sector... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch December's decision finely balanced The decision at the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board meeting next week is likely to be finely balanced. There are several goods reasons to believe the Board will further extend monetary easing, and... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy in good shape to weather global downturn The pick-up in Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth in Q3 supports our view that it is on track to be one of the best performers in the MENA region next year. However, the breakdown shows that growth was driven... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: a weak start to Q4 A slew of data released this morning indicate that after slowing sharply in Q3, the South African economy got off to a poor start in Q4. But with inflation likely to accelerate further in the coming... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics (Q3 12) FSA data on the mortgage market in the third quarter make for grim reading, with lending down but mortgage rates and arrears both up. While it is too early for the FLS to have had an effect on these... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending and total social financing (Nov.) Today’s lending data released by the People’s Bank support the view that current policy support is insufficient to drive a prolonged acceleration in economic growth. 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec. 12) December’s rise in ZEW investor sentiment provides only limited hope for the German economy given clear signs of a downturn in the recent hard data and the latest developments in Greece and Italy. 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Nov. 12) After a surprisingly strong set of results last month, a softening across most of the indicators in the November RICS survey confirms that the housing market is still very depressed. 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
