Commodities Update PMIs rise but support for commodities to be short-lived Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs for China and the euro-zone have both improved, but they remain at relatively low levels. Other recent data suggest that China’s recovery still lacks momentum and that... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.), Final CPI (Nov.) & Emp. (Q3) Despite rising for a second month running in December, the euro-zone composite PMI remained well below the “no-change” level, consistent with a deepening recession in Q4. 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Poor Tankan increases pressure on Japan's policymakers The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey showed business conditions deteriorated sharply in Q4, adding to evidence that the economy is likely to have contracted for a third consecutive quarter. The winner of... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec. 12) Today’s upbeat flash manufacturing PMI from HSBC and Markit suggests that China’s recovery is continuing in the last few weeks of 2012. But a high level of inventories is continuing to weigh on output... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rates more likely to fall than rise in 2013 Chile’s economy is currently in a sweet spot between strong growth and low inflation, and we do not expect any moves in interest rates in the near term. But to the extent that rates are changed next... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery is uneven and lacks strength The recovery in emerging market exports remains uneven, with manufacturing economies, mainly in Asia, continuing to outperform commodity exporters. What’s more, there are already some signs that the... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Fed sowing the seeds of the next financial crisis? The Fed’s policy stance may breathe some more life into the US economy in coming years. But it could also sow the seeds of the next financial crisis by inflating new asset bubbles. 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Are Peru and Chile losing their fiscal discipline? Chile’s economy is currently in a sweet spot between strong growth and low inflation, and we do not expect any moves in interest rates in the near term. But to the extent that rates are changed next... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rebound in household formation to support rental market Rebounding household formation will be a tailwind for the housing recovery. But with the overwhelming majority of newly forming households over the next few years set to rent rather than own their... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further falls in European property investment likely in 2013 Our forecast that 2012 European commercial property volumes would be as much as 20% lower than in 2011 looks to be on track. Unfortunately, the conditions are not in place for a rebound in 2013. If... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What to expect from the ANC Elective Conference News that South Africa’s deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe will challenge incumbent president Jacob Zuma for the leadership of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has added an extra layer of... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Nov. 12) November’s retail sales figures didn’t alter our view that consumption is struggling to find momentum. With consumer confidence now falling, hopes that retailers would enjoy a robust holiday shopping... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set to weaken further in 2013 Inflation is falling sharply across Central and South Eastern Europe and we expect this to continue into next year. This should encourage further policy stimulus in the Czech Republic and Poland... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does Fed policy mean for commodities? The muted reaction to the Fed’s announcement yesterday supports our view that the boost to commodity prices from exceptionally loose US monetary policy has now largely run its course. The monetary... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How long will the Greek relief last? The news that Greece will get its next and long-awaited bail-out loan payment within days will provide Greek and euro-zone policymakers with a bit of breathing space. But we doubt that this will bring... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
