Commodities Update Is there any more upside for gold? The price of gold looks set to end 2012 on a low note, perhaps below $1,700 per ounce, but we continue to expect the precious metal to reach new record highs of at least $2,000 in 2013. The monetary... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Dec.) December’s MPC minutes had something of an “end of term” feel and simply confirmed that the Committee is in wait and see mode. Perhaps the most notable aspect was further evidence of the MPC’s growing... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s small rise in the German Ifo business survey is moderately encouraging news. But the index still points to economic stagnation in the near term. 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Signs growth has bottomed out in Q4 Data for the past couple of months suggest that GDP growth has picked up slightly in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, growth still remains weak by historical standards. Subdued global demand will... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are central banks going soft on inflation? Recent proposed changes to the monetary policy framework in several countries may signal slightly greater tolerance for inflation. But they do not mean the authorities are relaxing their grip on price... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update 2012: Day of reckoning postponed by the ECB Our fears that 2012 could be the “crunch year” for the euro-zone were not borne out – barring catastrophe in the next week or so! However, the fact that the economic news has been largely as we... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q4 2012 Business confidence in China has recovered slightly though it remains subdued. Banks are eager to lend but firms show little appetite for loans. Meanwhile, households are increasingly optimistic and... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy remains in the doldrums but markets upbeat The yen has weakened markedly over the last month on anticipation of more aggressive monetary easing as the incoming LDP administration turns the screws on the Bank of Japan. However, the Bank is... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Industry stagnating There are some signs that the recent stagnation in manufacturing output won’t last long. The Markit manufacturing PMI rose to a seven-month high in December and, although the headline index of the ISM... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rhodium: the Capital Economics view Rhodium is being added to our coverage of precious metals from today. Despite our expectations of a deep recession in the euro-zone and lacklustre growth elsewhere, we believe that the price of... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa to outperform in 2013 Growth across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has held up relatively well in the last few months of 2012. This is despite a weak global backdrop and the continued sluggish performance of South Africa, the... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary and Turkey cut rates in spite of external risks Policymakers in Hungary and Turkey cut interest rates today as the general improvement in global risk appetite in recent months has reduced concerns over external vulnerabilities and allowed the... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small firms and high-income households more downbeat The recent falls in sentiment of small businesses and high-earning consumers highlight that the fiscal cliff stand-off is weighing on activity. But the resulting hit to the economy may not be too... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch The outlook for 2013 This edition of our monthly Energy Watch looks at the prospects for energy prices in 2013, focusing on crude oil, coal and US natural gas. We present some central forecasts, compare them to the... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q3) Ireland’s small rise in GDP in the third quarter underlined its status as the healthiest of the euro-zone’s peripheral economies. But it still faces considerable challenges in 2013 and beyond. 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
