Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Another tough year in 2013 Emerging markets (EMs) have endured their most difficult year since the global recession of 2009. GDP appears to have expanded by about 4.8% this year, down from an average of over 6% during the past... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Balance (Oct.) October’s euro-zone trade data confirmed that the region continues to run a large trade surplus by historical standards. But the recent fall in exports is another reason to believe that the consensus... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Our key calls for 2013 We expect 2013 to be another year of weak growth, low inflation and further divergence between the US and other advanced economies. The biggest problems will continue to be in the euro-zone, where the... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed's thresholds don't alter policy stance We welcome the Fed’s decision to link the timing of its first interest rate hike to numerical thresholds for the unemployment rate and inflation. But this tweak didn’t actually alter the stance of... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slow progress towards banking union The European Council finally managed to reach some important compromises last week, allowing progress to be made towards setting up an EU-wide bank supervisor in the form of the ECB. But, presumably... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the western provinces outperform in 2013? Canada's western provinces, which have outperformed most other provinces over the past two years, are likely to remain on top in 2013. High oil and other commodity prices should continue to benefit... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Priorities for the new government At the time of writing, the outcome of the 16th December Lower House election is not yet clear. However, the dire Q4 Tankan survey, released on Friday, underlined the scale of the challenges facing... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fresh thinking coming to Threadneedle Street Mr Carney’s arrival presents an obvious opportunity to reshape the monetary policy framework and the Governor-to-be last week gave a crucial indication that he, for one, is on board. 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What will Korea's election mean for its economy? A presidential election will take place in Korea on Wednesday. Despite the political differences between the two frontrunners, their economic policies have much in common. As such, we think the... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Could 2013 bring a positive surprise to the housing market? The housing market could benefit from a number of positive surprises in 2013. In particular, two thatspring to mind are an acceleration of the take-up of the Funding for Lending Scheme, and ongoing... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Any major boost to GDP from shale gas still some way off As well as raising hopes about the UK’s future energy independence, the Government’s decision to allow “fracking” in the North West of England to recommence has fostered optimism that the UK economy... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's policy rate has further to fall The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its discount rate by 50bp to 9.5% today. We think monetary policy is likely to be loosened further in a bid to revive private sector credit growth, although rate... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Nov. 12) The drop back in inflation below the 2% target in November will allow the Fed to continue focusing its efforts on boosting the real economy. This is just as well when, after stripping out the effect... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Oct. 12) October's discouraging 2.4% m/m drop in manufacturing sales volumes together with the soft external trade data, released earlier this week, suggest that the economy stalled in October. Accordingly... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth picking up, but 2013 set to be a testing year Growth in Latin America has accelerated in the final months of this year. We reckon that regional GDP is on course to expand by just over 3% y/y in Q4, up from less than 2.5% y/y in Q3. This should... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
