UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Dec.) The small improvement in the CBI Industrial Trends Survey in December suggested that manufacturing output might have stabilised towards the end of the year. Nonetheless, other indicators have been... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's central bank has more work to do The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 2.75% today, as was widely expected. Korea’s economic slowdown has bottomed out, but we think growth is unlikely to rebound strongly and that inflation... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reforms needed to prevent rise in India's public debt ratio A combination of rapid economic growth and low bond yields has resulted in a gradual decline in India’s public debt ratio since 2003. But the debt ratio will rise again in the coming years if the... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A better start to Q4 but Emerging Europe still struggling Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that emerging market growth has accelerated a little in the final quarter of this year. But growth remains subdued by the standards of the past decade and the recent... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update First test of new leadership's appetite for reform The release later this month of government proposals to reduce income inequality will provide early evidence of whether a change of leadership in Beijing has given new momentum to economic reform. The... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed adopts new thresholds and expands QE3 The Fed's adoption of numerical thresholds is, in practical terms, just a tweak in the framework used to signal how long it expects to leave short-term rates at near-zero. Based on the FOMC's new... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Exports to euro-zone to remain a source of EM weakness Weak demand from the euro-zone accounts for about two-fifths of the decline in emerging market GDP growth over the past year or so, and the drag looks set to intensify as Europe slides into an even... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt: what are the risks ahead? As the dust settles on the latest twist in Argentina’s sovereign debt debacle, attention has turned to 2013 and the possibility of a fresh default. This remains a significant risk. But while a default... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cuts in Sri Lanka are premature We believe today’s unexpected rate cut by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) is premature in light of the large external problems still facing the economy. Given the CBSL’s current dovish stance, we... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Kenya: testing times, but brighter outlook beyond next year Our new GDP Tracker for Kenya suggests that the economy has picked up a little pace in the second half of 2012, but that growth remains subdued by recent standards. Looking ahead, the combination of a... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does the surge in China's imports mean for rice? Mainland China’s net rice imports will have risen to record levels in 2012, whereas the country has traditionally been a net exporter. At first sight this might have been expected to have a major... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Outlook for the Turkish lira still clouded by external risks Concerns are mounting that Turkey will be faced with a fresh wave of “hot” capital inflows. As it happens, we don’t think this is a credible threat – we expect a fresh escalation of the euro-crisis to... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q3 12) The number of financial & business services (FBS) sector jobs hit a fresh record high in Q3. For now, we continue to pencil in falls in City and West End office rents in 2013. But the persistent... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct. 12) October’s euro-zone industrial production data provided further strong evidence that the recession in the single currency area has deepened in the fourth quarter. 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Oct./Nov. 12) The latest labour market figures provided further evidence that the recent strength of employment growth is fading. And real pay is still falling quite sharply. 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
