Our new GDP Tracker for Kenya suggests that the economy has picked up a little pace in the second half of 2012, but that growth remains subdued by recent standards. Looking ahead, the combination of a deteriorating external environment and heightened political risk in the run-up to elections in March 2013 will weigh on the outlook. In all, we think that GDP will grow by around 4.0% in 2013, leaving us at the bottom of consensus expectations.
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