UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity improves as the year ends The housing market is showing some renewed signs of life as the year ends, but we suspect these will be snuffed out during 2013. An economy struggling to grow, increases in unemployment and a... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q3 GDP growth hit by weak domestic demand The detailed Q3 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe make pretty grim reading. We fear that the slowdown in both domestic demand and exports may be a sign of things to come. 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa's current account deficit still a concern South Africa’s current account deficit was not as wide as expected in Q3, but the fact that it is being funded in large part by portfolio inflows means that external financing risks persist. The... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How big a threat is inflation to emerging markets? Inflation is unlikely to be a major threat to most emerging markets in 2013. The two exceptions to this are Venezuela and Argentina, where high inflation will put downward pressure on their currencies... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Superstorm Sandy may have depressed US non-farm payrolls 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold despite prospect of long recession At its press conference today, the ECB again refused to make any firm commitments about the amount of support that it might be prepared to offer the Spanish Government if it requested a bailout. And... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus 2013 – make or break? 2013 could be the year in which a number of factors that have been holding back the US economic recovery are removed. This doesn’t mean the economy will soon start firing on all cylinders. But it does... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Political turmoil to prevent Egypt from easing Egypt’s deepening political crisis has put paid to any hopes of policy easing, in the very near-term at least. Indeed, if things stay as they are, we wouldn’t be surprised if the central bank is... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian elections to put leu under spotlight The run-up to Romania’s parliamentary election on Sunday has been surprisingly quiet. But we think the markets may be underestimating the risk of fresh turbulence following the vote. 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Shifting up the gears The housing recovery is building a real head of steam. We anticipate further strong gains in home sales and housing starts in 2013. At the national level, price gains are likely to match those seen... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Export growth likely to remain hard fought Global manufacturing PMI data for November indicate that Canada's non-energy exports will remain broadly stagnant in the near term. The recovery in US home building and auto sales, however, should... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Central America best placed to benefit from China shift After a decade of underperformance, we believe that growth in Central America will start to outpace that of South America over the coming years. Part of the reason for this is the changing... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Nov. 12) The largest monthly rise in house prices for eight months would seem to provide further evidence that the housing market is ending 2012 on a more positive note. But with the economy set for another... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement confirms poor consumer spending outlook In order to fund corporate tax cuts and an infrastructure boost, yesterday’s Autumn Statement heaped more pain on consumers. Indeed, by announcing more benefit cuts for 2013 and 2014, and confirming... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More QE still in prospect Although the MPC left its quantitative easing (QE) programme on pause again at today’s meeting, we think that more asset purchases are likely before long. And yesterday’s gloomy Autumn Statement... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) The breakdown of euro-zone GDP in the third quarter brought little cause for optimism regarding the outlook for the region. With timelier indicators giving a universally negative picture, the... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
