Japan Economics Weekly Japan's sliding infrastructure spending The fatal accident in the Sasago Tunnel on Sunday 2nd December has turned the spotlight on to Japan’s ageing infrastructure ahead of the Lower House elections at the end of this week. In this Weekly... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Households still paying down debt The household debt to disposable income ratio fell to a nine-year low of 113% in the third quarter, down from a peak of 134%. The deleveraging process will continue for a few more years, although with... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business spending renaissance won't improve productivity The recent improvement in business capital spending has prompted speculation that a business productivity renaissance is at hand. This seems like wishful thinking. The majority of the growth in recent... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Chancellor’s problems aren’t over The OBR’s downgraded forecasts for economic growth still look too high, suggesting that borrowing will be slower to fall than it expects. And even if the OBR’s forecasts are right, the Chancellor... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The ECB too gloomy? Not likely. Suggestions that last week’s downgrades to the ECB’s economic projections have left it too gloomy look wide of the mark. Against a background of weak global activity, continued austerity and high and... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Has Vietnam's monetary loosening cycle come to an end? Vietnam’s central bank has been the most aggressive rate-cutter in Asia this year, slashing its policy rate by a cumulative 500bp to 10%. Although inflation has picked up in recent months, we think... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s the right benchmark for US oil prices? The US Energy Information Administration’s recent decision to switch to Brent rather than West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as its reference oil price has reignited the debate about the appropriate... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The sharp drop in December's University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low of 74.5, from 82.7, suggests that the looming fiscal cliff has finally started to take a toll... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November's surprisingly strong 59,300 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was 10,000) seems far too good for an economy that is still growing below its potential rate. Given the uncertain... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) November's Employment Report is something of a mixed bag but, on balance, it's a positive. Non-farm payroll employment increased by a better than expected 146,000 last month, well above the consensus... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Prod. (Oct.) & Inflation Attitudes Survey (Q4) The further drop in industrial production in October to its lowest level in two decades raises the chances of a triple dip recession in the wider economy. 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) The further drop in industrial production in October to its lowest level in two decades raises the chances of a triple dip recession in the wider economy. 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus What are the longer-term prospects for US equities and bonds? Bonds have generally fared much better the equities since the turn of the century. We do not expect this pattern to last. If we are right, this could have serious repercussions given the very... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Molybdenum: the Capital Economics view Molybdenum is being added to our coverage of industrial metals from today. We expect the molybdenum price to fall by at least another 10% next year, to $9.50 per pound ($21,000 per tonne), as Chinese... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates set to remain on hold throughout 2013 Peru kept interest rates on hold at 4.25% last night after a fall in food inflation brought the headline rate down to target for the first time since mid-2011. Looking forward, with the scope for... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
