UK Commercial Property Focus The outlook for 2013: a return to rising capital values? Our sense is that investor sentiment has improved in recent months and some are now starting to look ahead to the next commercial property recovery. Accordingly, although the current downturn is not... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Energy sector in a jam A rebound in Canadian energy production, which was hit by temporary disruptions in the third quarter, should ensure that GDP growth rebounds to around 1.5% annualised in the fourth quarter. The... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian currencies undervalued, but still set to weaken Most currencies in Asia look undervalued. However, it would be wrong to conclude that Asia’s currencies are set for rapid appreciation. In 2013, we think an escalation in the euro-zone crisis will... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More tinkering around the edges On Friday, Japan’s government announced another stimulus package, the second in just over a month. For Japan’s economy the package is more a prick of the finger than a shot in the arm and appears to... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly In what direction will Mr Carney take the Bank? Attention has quickly turned to what impact Mark Carney’s appointment as Governor of the Bank of England is likely to have on monetary policy. We are not convinced by arguments that he has... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek bail-out deal won't bring lasting calm Last week’s bail-out agreement has prompted some commentators to suggest that Greece’s future in the euro-zone should now be secure until at least next autumn. But we are not convinced. Indeed, given... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2012) Canada's disappointing 0.6% annualised third-quarter GDP growth puts further pressure on the Bank of Canada to drop its tightening bias. We doubt, however, that this would be enough to prompt the Bank... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Concerns over student loans overdone The rapid rise in the value of outstanding student loans and the spike in the default rate have fuelled fears that student loans are the next bubble. Aside from the risk that excessive borrowing early... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the Oslo-Stockholm all-property yield differential widen? If the euro-zone crisis worsens and economic growth in Norway and Sweden disappoints, property yields in both Oslo and Stockholm are likely to rise by 30bps to 50bps over the next 12-18 months... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch How large is the Middle East risk premium? This edition of our monthly Energy Watch takes a closer look at two hot topics in the oil market. The first is the size of the Middle East risk premium in the price of crude, which we believe to be at... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Q3 GDP reinforces limits of consumption-led growth Today’s disappointing third quarter GDP data suggest that despite substantial policy stimulus the Brazilian economy is struggling to get going. We expect growth to remain lacklustre over the next year... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Q4 12) Respondents to the latest IPF Consensus forecasts envisage rental values beginning to edge higher next year. But with capital values also expected to drop further in 2013, the implication is that any... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian growth unlikely to pick up next year It may be something of a relief that India’s third quarter GDP figures were no worse than expected. But while growth may have stabilised, we are sceptical that it will pick up in 2013. 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Oct.) & Flash CPI (Nov.) The latest news on the euro-zone labour market and inflation further underlined the general weakness of the region’s economy. 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish slowdown to trigger large rate cuts Q3 GDP data confirmed that the Polish economy has slowed sharply and with mounting external and domestic headwinds, we think growth will weaken further to just 1.0% in 2013. Accordingly, we expect... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
