Bank of Canada Watch Next move in rates more likely to be down than up We expect the Bank of Canada to stick with its tightening bias in next week’s policy statement and through the early stages of next year, before removing it completely by early March. By then we... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct. 12) The small fall in new home sales in October, and the downward revision to September’s figures, mean that the recovery in new home sales is looking a little weaker than we were previously led to... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack A better end to the year Latin America appears to be enjoying an end of year growth spurt. We estimate that regional GDP growth accelerated to around 3% y/y in Q3, from a three-year low of 2.5% y/y in Q2. What’s more, growth... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana elections unlikely to prompt shift in policy direction The final presidential debate before elections in Ghana next month revealed that neither of the two main candidates are likely to oversee a radical shift away from market-friendly policies... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Oct. 12) Despite the best efforts of a still very buoyant prime London market, house prices in England and Wales as a whole dropped for the second consecutive month. 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct. 12) The latest euro-zone monetary data revealed a further small acceleration in the growth of money and bank lending in the region. But weak credit growth remains a major constraint on economic activity... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Can emerging economies get rich from commodities? History suggests that an abundance of natural resources makes broader economic development difficult for emerging markets (EMs). This is one reason why we believe that the non-commodity EMs of Asia... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong growth in the Philippines set to fade Economic growth in the Philippines accelerated in the third quarter, boosted by strong domestic demand. Exports have also proved surprisingly resilient. However, with the crisis in the euro-zone set... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) November's slight uptick in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a near-five-year high of 73.7, from 73.1 in October, appears to have been driven by lower gasoline prices. Despite... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q3) The third successive quarterly rise in national house prices is additional evidence that housing is experiencing a sustainable upturn. The fundamentals of very favourable housing valuations and... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Housing recovery an upside risk to inflation Unless the housing recovery proves to be much stronger than we expect, it won’t provide a worrying boost to core CPI inflation. Nonetheless, the housing market poses an upside risk to our view that... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will core market property yields be immune to the downturn? Outside the peripheral markets, the economic downturn in the euro-zone has yet to have a material impact on commercial property values. Yet if the recession deepens as we anticipate, the next six... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Oct.) October's durable goods data suggest that the slump in business investment eased slightly last month. But we don't anticipate any marked turnaround until Congress gets its act together and reaches an... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle on shaky ground The improvement in global risk appetite has provided Hungary’s National Bank with the scope to loosen policy. But persistent financial vulnerabilities mean that, without an IMF deal in place, the Bank... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and Mexico: trading places We expect the Mexican economy to outperform by recent standards over the next couple of years. By contrast, growth in Brazil – which until now has been the star performer out of Latin America’s two... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
