UK Data Response Public finances (Oct.) & MPC Minutes (Nov.) October’s public finance figures – the last before the Autumn Statement in a fortnight’s time – suggested that there is still a significant risk that the Chancellor will break his fiscal rules unless... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China's exporters still shrugging off fast-rising wages For years, the abiding view of China has been of a workshop powered by waves of young migrants able to outcompete workers elsewhere on the basis of low wages. This image is increasingly wide of the... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Changing political landscape puts pressure on long-term JGBs 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Regional performance diverges Q3 GDP figures out so far show that growth has held up better in South East Asia than elsewhere in the region thanks to the strength of domestic demand. Nonetheless, economic growth remains below... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Housing continues to strengthen Amid all the serious downside risks to the economic outlook, including the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff negotiations and the possibility of a resurgence of the crisis in the euro-zone, the... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Labour market reforms boost medium-term outlook Mexico’s labour market reforms are unlikely to lead to a swift acceleration in GDP growth in the very near-term. But with the re-election of the PRI seemingly having ended the political deadlock that... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC signals more aggressive easing At today’s MPC meeting, the Turkish central bank highlighted that it is becoming increasingly concerned about “hot” capital inflows and signalled that these could be countered with aggressive policy... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Egypt's IMF programme News that Egypt’s government has reached a “staff-level” agreement with the IMF on a $4.8bn programme has greatly reduced the risk of a balance of payments crisis in the country. Radical policy... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How would a euro break-up affect the core? A euro-zone break-up would see the re-instated domestic currencies of the region’s core economies appreciate sharply. Without appropriate policy action, the resulting damage to exports would more than... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q3) Despite the fall in overall GDP in Q3, Norway is still weathering the euro-zone debt crisis rather well. 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Russian economy makes a poor start to Q4 Following last week’s disappointing GDP release, which showed that the economy slowed to just 2.9% y/y in Q3, the raft of activity data for October suggests that the slowdown has continued in Q4. We... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) The further rise in housing starts in October confirms that the previous month’s very strong gain was not an unsustainable surge. With housing starts rising by 41.9% over the past year, it’s clear... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Nigeria likely to cut rates next year The Central Bank of Nigeria kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today, but the outlook for slowing inflation and sub-trend growth means that monetary easing is likely to come onto the agenda in 2013... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French downgrade highlights troubles in the core The direct effect of the latest downgrade of France should be modest. But it threatens to deepen the political rift between France and Germany, making policies to tackle the euro-zone’s debt crisis... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What does the future hold for JGBs? A steepening of the yield curve in Japan indicates that investors have become more concerned about the very long-run prospects for bonds. While we think such fears are justified, we doubt they will... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What next for the Bank of Japan? The election of an LDP-led government would be unlikely to result in the dramatic shift in policy at the Bank of Japan than many now seem to expect. Proposals that threaten the independence of the... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
