Asia Economics Update Global weakness will continue to weigh on Singapore Today’s GDP data show that Singapore's economy contracted more sharply than was previously estimated in Q3. With meaningful recovery in the global economy still some way off, we expect next year to be... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay prospects deteriorate Although real consumer spending probably rose in the third quarter, that could be as good as it gets for a while. 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Interpret Black Friday sales with caution We would warn against reading too much into the performance of retail sales on Black Friday as there is little evidence that it will set the tone for sales during the whole holiday season. More... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will bondholders’ faith in the Fed be rewarded? Bondholders have not lost faith in the Fed’s commitment to low and stable inflation. But that does not mean they should expect healthy returns. 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q3) The decline in mortgage delinquencies in the third quarter is another encouraging sign that the housing market is improving. In particular, it means that the shadow inventory of homes in imminent... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Safe haven demand to support the yen through 2013 Expectations of more aggressive monetary easing from the Bank of Japan have weakened the yen, even though there is already little practical difference between its stance and that of the Fed. On... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) September's moderate 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing sales volumes, which was largely bolstered by a jump in aerospace, supports the view that Canada's economy grew by 0.2% m/m. Nevertheless, this... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Signs of stabilisation in Q3 Emerging market (EM) GDP growth appears to have stabilised in Q3. Our GDP tracker suggests that output expanded by about 4.0% y/y, down only slightly from 4.2% y/y in Q2. There have been some positive... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The annual rate of CPI inflation edged back up to 2.2% last month, from 2.0%, but will drop back before year-end thanks to the continued decline in gasoline prices. Core inflation remained unchanged... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru still among region’s fastest growing economies September’s activity data show that Peru remains among the region’s fastest growing economies and it seems that GDP probably grew by 6.5% y/y in Q3. We expect Peru to be one of Latin America’s best... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf economies well placed to weather global weakness The Gulf looks comparatively well placed to weather the further deterioration in the global economy that we expect in 2013. Government spending has increased significantly in recent years, but there... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Middle East break-evens won’t set a floor on oil prices The recent increases in the level of the oil price required to balance government budgets for the major Gulf producers are often cited as a reason to expect the cost of crude to remain high. In... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World growth picked up a bit in Q3, but is still low World GDP recovered a bit in Q3 after a very weak second quarter. Looking forward, growth is set to strengthen a little in China and remain steady in the US. But this should be offset by continued... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is consumer spending facing a lost decade? There is at last light at the end of the tunnel for consumer demand. But while we expect some sort of recovery in consumer spending to get going relatively soon, we expect that recovery to be very... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 12) Q3’s GDP data confirmed that, despite continued growth in Germany and France, the euro-zone as a whole is now officially in recession. We expect the recession to deepen markedly in the coming quarters... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
