Global Economics Focus Global growth prospects beyond 2020 Some commentators argue that growth of world per capita income over the coming few decades will be much lower than in the past, because technological progress has slowed or because of the depletion of... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Cyprus be the first domino to fall? The news that Cyprus is about to run out of money has given a dangerous new angle to the euro-zone crisis. The economy is so small that a bail-out would be very cheap, but the Government will be... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2012 Preview The Chancellor remains hemmed in by the fiscal position. Indeed, he may well have to choose between introducing even more austerity in the Autumn Statement and letting at least one of his fiscal rules... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs improve but remain at low levels Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs for China and the euro-zone have both risen and appear to have sent commodity prices slightly higher. However, the former only points to a weak recovery in China while... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are emerging market foreign exchange reserves adequate? Foreign exchange reserves in many emerging economies have fallen over the last year, leaving some exposed to a sharp slowdown in export revenues or to a sudden stop in capital inflows. Venezuela is... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov. 12) Today’s flash manufacturing PMI from HSBC and Markit provides further reassurance that recovery is underway, but hopes for a strong rebound will probably be disappointed given lingering weakness in... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) The slight rise in the flash euro-zone composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in November clearly does nothing to alter our view that the recession has intensified in Q4. 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Japanese equities unlikely to buoyed by a weaker yen for long 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much difference would a 2% inflation target make? The LDP’s manifesto for the elections in December, published today, includes a commitment to persuade the Bank of Japan to raise its inflation target from 1% to 2%. This has added to the downward... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update East African energy boom comes with risks Discoveries of giant gas fields off the coast of East Africa in the past few months are likely to have a very positive impact on the economies of Mozambique and Tanzania. But while both countries... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Are Scandinavian property prices on the brink? Consistent with the slowdown in the region’s economies, the upturn in commercial property rents in Scandinavia seems to have stalled. Given that, we think that yields will begin to rise before long... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Big challenges ahead for whoever is Governor It should not be long until we hear who will replace Sir Mervyn King as Governor of the Bank of England at the end of next June. It is thought that the appointment of a Bank “insider” might just lead... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing stagnation comes before the fall The recent decline in the sales-to-listings ratio points to home price stagnation ahead, a prospect that has already begun to scare away some condo investors. In Vancouver and Toronto, existing condo... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exports to remain a drag on growth A quick look at what’s behind the recent slide in Japan’s exports confirms that the main drag is the renewed downturn in the global economy. Exports to China have not deteriorated more than those to... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor A real turnaround The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) confirms that China’s economy has picked up speed. So far though, the recovery still looks weak and lopsided, with key sectors being left out. 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to slow amid global headwinds The economies of Latin America will continue to outperform their peers in the developed world over the coming quarters, but growth is set to slow in 2013 and will be lacklustre by the standards of the... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
