Europe Economics Weekly Core's resilience unlikely to last Last week’s euro-zone economic data brought some reasons for hope. While GDP in the region as a whole fell for the second quarter running in Q3, both Germany and France posted modest expansions... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Low unemployment no support to domestic demand Unemployment rates across Asia remain very low, but household spending has weakened all the same in response to flat or falling wages. The apparent health of Asia’s job markets should not be a reason... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Lower gasoline prices a timely boost The encouraging noises emanating from Washington make it more likely, although it is still far from certain, that a deal to prevent the fiscal cliff will be reached and that any adverse impact on the... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Government well positioned to weather storms The federal government's updated fiscal plan released last week, which reiterated the commitment to control program spending, is likely to come undone next year if, as we fear, economic growth slows... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The return of the LDP Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda dissolved parliament on Friday, paving the way for a general election on 16th December. The decision is likely to mean the fall of the ruling DPJ party from office and... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly QE still at the top of the toolbox The main message from Wednesday’s Inflation Report was that quantitative easing (QE) is still the MPC’s preferred course of action when it comes to giving the economy more stimulus. 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests marked slowdown in Q3 The Capital Economics South Africa GDP Tracker suggests that the economy slowed sharply in the third quarter of this year. We think annualised growth dropped to 1.5% q/q, from 3.2% q/q in Q2. This... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Platinum floor prices higher but downside risks still dominate Labour unrest in South Africa, the dominant global producer of platinum, has raised the floor for platinum prices and should limit their downside in 2013. This is despite the prospect of continued... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account deficits still a source of EM vulnerability Large current account deficits and a reliance on short-term capital flows make a number of emerging economies vulnerable to a deterioration in the external funding environment. Turkey is most exposed... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will Christmas on the high street be a wash-out? October’s poor retail sales figures have prompted fears of a disappointing Christmas on the high street. While we doubt that it will be a write-off, we expect consumers to be cautious and retailers... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico slowing but still likely to outperform Mexico’s economy slowed by more than expected in Q3 and the latest monthly activity data suggest that growth in Q4 is likely to be even weaker. This should end speculation that the central bank might... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Commercial property prices on their last legs? In Q3, the euro-zone economy entered recession. For now, across the euro-zone as a whole commercial property rents and yields are pretty much flat. But if we are right that the region’s economic... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary and the IMF one year on Tomorrow marks the first anniversary of the start of Hungary’s negotiations with the IMF. Unfortunately, we are no closer to a deal now than we were then. For the time being, the markets don’t appear... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia set for a mild slowdown Today’s GDP data show that Malaysia’s economy grew faster than expected in Q3. While Malaysia has performed well through the recent trade downturn, its economy is nonetheless set to slow next year as... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slow growth in Hong Kong set to continue into 2013 Hong Kong’s economy returned to growth in the third quarter, but the pace of expansion was still very weak. With the global economy likely to remain depressed over the next year, a strong rebound... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
