Capital Daily Germany's economy could slide back into recession next year 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will the US become the world's top oil producer? The likelihood that the US will become the world’s largest oil producer by the end of the decade is not the game-changer that it may first appear. Total oil output in the US has already surged to a... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook The modest downturn is nearly over The economy is set to expand over the next year or two, but only slowly, preventing a strong rebound in property rents. Even so, investor confidence is showing signs of life and we think the current... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: markets to sanguine on local government debt risk A restructuring of local government debt in Hungary is by no means certain and, even if it did occur, would entail smaller losses for the banking sector than a similar restructuring of private sector... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Elections take centre stage The recent peaceful transitions of power following elections in Senegal and Zambia demonstrate that the threat of voting-related violence in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been receding in the past few... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Few options left to plug holes in Venezuela's balance of payments A combination of quick-fix remedies may enable the Venezuelan economy to withstand the loss of exports revenues if oil prices fall over the next couple of years. But with the authorities running out... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Stock market consequences of slower growth in the BRICs Slower growth in the BRIC economies makes it less likely that their stock markets will outperform those of the major developed economies again after a couple of disappointing years. 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will Greece's extra financing needs be met? We suspect that policymakers may find a way to meet the estimated increase in Greece’s borrowing needs for the remainder of its bail-out deal without providing bigger loans. But if the economic... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Board to wait to see impact of recent policy changes The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board meeting next week is likely to be uneventful. The Board has eased monetary policy twice in three meetings over the last two months, and we see little justification for... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.) October’s rise in CPI inflation from 2.2% to 2.7% provided another explanation for why the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which would have seen the headline figures, held back from providing more... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Oct. 12) An improvement across nearly all the indicators in October is perhaps an early sign that housing market activity is finally starting to recover. But with demand and supply still in balance, we doubt... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Turkey's sovereign debt upgrade lower property yields? At the margins, a case could be made that Turkey’s sovereign debt upgrade could boost investor sentiment towards all Turkish assets, including property. But, in 2013, given the prospect of tight... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Subsidy cuts likely to push Egypt inflation higher The latest data from Egypt paint a disappointing picture of weakening growth and rising inflation. And with subsidy cuts and tax hikes expected as conditions to any agreement with the IMF, headline... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is monetary policy reaching its limits? Some members of the MPC appear to think that they are reaching the limits of how much monetary policy can help the economy. We agree that more gilt purchases might not do a lot of good. But this just... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: in search of investment-led growth Data released later this month are likely to show that after having stagnated for much of the past year, Brazil’s economy roared back to life in Q3 on the back of substantial policy stimulus. But... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
