UK Economics Update Would missing the debt rule lose the UK its AAA rating? The European Commission this week added to warnings that the Chancellor might miss his target for debt as a share of GDP to be falling in 2015/16. One factor influencing whether Mr Osborne decides... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African CPI reweighting doesn't alter rate outlook The new weights assigned to components of the South African CPI basket, which are due to come into effect in January 2013, will have only a marginal impact on overall inflation. As such, the... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: IMF deal closer, but devaluation still an issue Media reports suggesting that the Egyptian government could reach a deal with the IMF within the next few months is clearly good news. However, we have been here before and we suspect the issue of... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What's next for Greece? The passing of the omnibus bill by Parliament last night means that Greece has taken a decisive step towards gaining the next loan tranche of its latest bail-out. But although this has reduced the... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC not out of firepower yet The MPC’s decision to leave policy on hold today would not have been an easy one and the vote could have been quite close. We think that more policy stimulus will be required in the coming months –... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The slowdown spreads Third quarter GDP data, which are due to be released by most countries over the coming month, are likely to make fairly grim reading. We estimate that regional growth slowed to around 1.5-2.0% y/y in... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (Q3 12) A strong labour market combined with low and stable mortgage rates have not been able to prevent a small rise in mortgage arrears. Possessions are currently being kept low by continued lender... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update A sharp contraction expected with further falls to come Consensus expectations for Japan’s Q3 growth have been slashed over the last month. However, based on today’s dire numbers the contraction in Q3 could be even worse. What’s more, a further fall in... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Buy-To-Let Lending (Q3 12) The soft tone of the latest figures on BTL lending are not a surprise given survey evidence that, after a strong 2011, demand from BTL investors has been moderating throughout the course of this year. 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia on hold for now, but a cut is likely next year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept its policy rate on hold today at 3.0%, as was widely expected. The economy has performed well amid the global slowdown and so there is little need for the central bank... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in Indonesia set for prolonged hold Indonesia’s central bank (BI) kept its reference rate at 5.75% today, as expected. With inflation relatively low and economic growth remaining strong, we expect BI to remain on hold for the remainder... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Better insolvencies data are encouraging for property yields The latest corporate insolvencies data were the best in more than four years and our GDP forecasts suggest that the worst may now have passed for business failures. This should help to ease investors’... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
From Q4 2012, see the Euro-zone and Non-euro-zone Commercial Property Analysts 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Upbeat small businesses don't alter broad picture The latest increase in CFIB's small business optimism index to a six-month high of 65.6 in October, from 62.0 in September, doesn't alter the big picture that the economy may have slowed further at... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing starts likely to slump next year Since early 2010, housing starts have been driven by the multi-unit sector, with single detached housing starts remaining broadly unchanged. The problem is that housing construction has been running... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
