Europe Chart Pack Mixed signals on Q3 growth The economic data has provided somewhat conflicting messages on the likely strength of the euro-zone economy during the third quarter of the year. While the hard data on industrial production and... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How are market prospects shaping up after the US elections? The initially limited market reaction to the re-election of President Obama made sense because this was the outcome that had looked most likely. In any event, economic prospects might not have been... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China's leadership change matters more to EMs than US election The imminent leadership change in China is a more significant event for emerging economies than the re-election of President Obama. The installation of a cohesive Chinese leadership committed to... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Obama re-election doesn’t alter bigger picture The re-election of President Obama removes one uncertainty that has been weighing on the markets over the last few months. But they are none the wiser about if, how and when Congress will deal with... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya cuts rates, pace of easing now set to slow The Central Bank of Kenya cut its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 11.00% today but, while there is still room for further easing, rates are unlikely to continue falling so sharply over the next... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct. 12) After rising strongly in the early part of October, mortgage applications have since dropped steadily despite the very low level of mortgage interest rates. This suggests that tight lending criteria... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Making sense of the Andes construction boom Increased savings and investment levels have fuelled a surge in construction activity in Latin America’s Andean economies, helping to raise their long-run growth potential. But in a few countries... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish easing cycle has much further to run Today’s decision by the National Bank of Poland to cut interest rates by 25bps to 4.50% suggests that policymakers are finally starting to acknowledge that the big threat to the economy comes from... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep. 12) September’s German industrial production figures poured cold water on recent talk of a recovery in the euro-zone’s biggest economy. 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Green shoots have yet to emerge in the housing market Another month of pretty dreary housing market data does nothing to alter our view that house prices will continue to drift lower over the next couple of years. But with the recent strength in the... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could Romanian retail be a good medium-term bet? Fresh signs of life in the consumer sector, together with relatively low retail property prices, seem to have prompted investor interest in the Romanian retail market. But the immediate outlook for... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Child benefit cuts only part of accelerating fiscal squeeze About 1 million households are currently receiving a letter from HMRC setting out how much they will lose from child benefit reforms taking effect in January 2013. While the macroeconomic impact of... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Focus set to shift in the US from the elections to the "fiscal cliff" 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Solving the business hiring/investment puzzle Businesses are developing a split personality. The slump in capital goods orders suggests that businesses are increasingly concerned about the looming fiscal cliff and/or the global economic slowdown... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to continued weakness in Q4 Business surveys for October suggest the global recovery began the fourth quarter at the same subdued pace it recorded in the summer. They also suggest that the US and euro-zone economies continued to... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone unemployment has much further to rise We suspect that the recent rise in the euro-zone unemployment rate is a sign of things to come and see the rate peaking at about 13.5% next year. This, together with continued fiscal austerity, is... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
