UK Economic Outlook Recovery remains just out of reach The squeeze on real pay is ending but the prospect of an actual recovery now looks a bit further off. We still expect the consumer spending recovery to be very muted. 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Signs that willing sellers are returning Having fallen briefly following the announcement of QE3, MBS yields and mortgage interest rates were rising again in the final weeks of October. Of course, the bigger picture remains that mortgage... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update PPI payments still not a game-changer for spending outlook UK banks have now increased their provisions for compensation payments for mis-sold Payment Protection Insurance (PPI) policies to £15bn – equal to 1.5% of annual household incomes. However, we think... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi PMI continues to point to strong non-oil sector October’s PMI data suggest that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector continues to grow at a robust pace, but our own activity proxy – based on actual hard data – indicates that the economy has... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish upgrade unlikely to be a game changer for markets Today’s decision by Fitch to raise Turkey’s sovereign debt rating to investment grade is likely to have only a limited impact on financial markets since the move seems to have already been priced in... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch More QE ahead, whether this month or next year It will be a close decision at this week’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting. The latest business surveys suggest that the recovery is still struggling. But other economic data have been more positive... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Oct.) October’s CIPS/Markit report on services was something of a reality check to the generally positive economic news of recent weeks. Alongside last week’s disappointing manufacturing survey, it suggests... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong growth in Indonesia, but will outperformance last? Indonesia recorded another quarter of strong growth in Q3, with the pace of expansion down only slightly compared with the previous quarter. Weak exports will act as a drag on growth over the next... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The effect of the consumption tax hike on growth The proposed increase in the consumption tax in April 2014 and again in October 2015 can be expected to affect the economy through two routes. First, it will generate a front-loaded increase in demand... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Firms and households still unwilling to borrow October’s ECB Bank Lending Survey revealed that banks tightened their lending criteria further despite easing strains related to the sovereign debt crisis. And weak demand for loans was a more... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses halt investment ahead of the fiscal cliff The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer survey suggested that businesses are increasingly putting on hold investment decisions just in case Congress allows the fiscal cliff to hit. There is a growing... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Tentative signs the lending scheme is working Last week brought some tentative signs that the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is beginning to work. New mortgage rates have been falling and last week’s lending figures were pretty encouraging... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Manufacturers in path of perfect storm The fragility of the global economic recovery, as we have long forewarned, has resurfaced and signs point to a material slowdown in global growth and commodity prices. Unfortunately, the global... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Consensus too hawkish on Asia’s policy rate outlook All four central banks which announce their policy rate decisions this week are likely to signal that global worries are a key downside risk for local growth. Only in Australia do we expect a rate cut... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct. 12) October's unexpectedly weak 1,800 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was 10,000) can be forgiven given the unusually strong gains in the previous two months. The worsening economic outlook... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
