Emerging Markets Economics Focus Has China helped or hurt emerging economies? China’s development has had a significant impact on emerging market growth, and not all economies have unambiguously benefitted. Even countries that have made the most of Chinese demand may find... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa’s near-term outlook: challenges and responses The widespread mining sector strikes in South Africa over the past few months have focused attention on some of the country’s deeply entrenched socio-economic problems, which will require addressing... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will Mexico hike interest rates? A series of hawkish comments from Mexican policymakers has fuelled speculation that the central bank may finally be on the cusp of hiking interest rates – having kept them at record lows for the best... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Sep.) & Flash CPI (Oct.) The rise in euro-zone unemployment in September, coupled with the high level of CPI inflation, does not bode well for consumer spending in the latter part of 2012. 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Heading back into recession The latest figures on Japan’s economy paint an even worse picture than we had anticipated. That the economy contracted in Q3 is now taken as a given. However, chances of a recovery in Q4 are... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French outlook darkens as consumers cut back Recent falls in French consumer spending are a blow to the economy, which has been heavily reliant on households for growth in the past. With unemployment near a record high, banks cutting back their... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Against the run of positive economic data in recent weeks, October’s decline in consumer confidence was particularly disappointing. Although GfK’s survey was undertaken before the news that the... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s growth likely to disappoint consensus Today’s GDP data from Taiwan show that the economy returned to y/y growth in Q3. However, we think growth is unlikely to pick up strongly in the coming quarters. Given our view that the global economy... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: populist policymaking raises default risk A recent ruling by a US court has raised questions over whether Argentina will be pushed into a fresh debt default. On closer inspection, the issue remains one of willingness to pay rather than... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct. 12) The latest Spanish public finances data, which show that Spain is struggling to meet its budget deficit targets, will increase the pressure on the Government to request a bail-out. 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Funding for Lending Scheme - a double-edged sword? September’s relatively positive borrowing numbers provided tentative evidence that the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is reducing the cost and increasing the availability of credit... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economic impact of Hurricane Sandy likely to be small The flooding and power outages across large parts of the East Coast mean that Hurricane Sandy will undoubtedly hit economic output in the short-term. Some of that output will be made up before the end... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi picks up speed ahead of US elections The renminbi has risen 2% against the dollar since the end of July, erasing all of its losses in the year to date. There appear to be two factors at work. One is a renewed appetite for the renminbi... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle running out of room Hungary continued to cut interest rates today, but financial vulnerabilities and a lack of progress towards an IMF deal mean that there is limited room for further easing. Accordingly, we don’t think... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller (Q3/Aug) Even with the housing recovery well underway, the share of Americans who own their own home remains more or less at a 16-year low. This fact is a reminder that, to date, the recovery still owes a lot... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
