US Data Response GDP (Q3 12 1st Estimate) The US economy expanded by a solid 2.0% annualised in the third quarter, up from 1.3% in the second, as a pick-up in consumption growth more than offset a decline in business investment. We suspect... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Sep. 12) The September Land Registry house price data provide further evidence that the housing market is refusing to join the good news party. If anything, it appears to be weakening further. 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana on track to outperform Increased oil and gas production should mean that Ghana outperforms the rest of the region and grows by 8-10% over the next couple of years. But beyond this, the key will be to ensure that energy... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Economic slowdown spreads to strongest performers The slowdown across Emerging Europe has intensified in recent months. We reckon that the region’s economy expanded at an annual pace of around 1.5-2.0% in Q3, down from 2.5% in Q2 and an average of 4... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Remittances to emerging markets to remain resilient Despite our forecast that global growth will continue to disappoint over the next couple of years, we expect remittances to most emerging markets will remain resilient. This will help drive growth in... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African bond markets shrug off deficit revisions The South African Finance Ministry today nudged up its forecasts for the fiscal deficit over the next three years, but we suspect that the budget shortfall may still surprise on the upside. The good... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment data swept up in pre-election hoopla As the last major piece of economic news to be released before the Presidential election, October’s Employment Report will attract even more attention than normal, with both parties attempting to spin... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Sep.) Bizarrely, even though September's durable goods report shows an above-consensus 9.9% m/m rebound in orders, the overall report is a disappointment that signals third-quarter GDP growth was weaker... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homebuilders benefiting from lower distressed supply The continued drop in the supply of distressed homes on the market is encouraging homebuilders to break ground on more sites. Admittedly, with a substantial overhang of properties still in the shadow... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Should we be worried about Argentina’s provincial debt? Fears that the ‘pesofication’ of foreign currency debt by one Argentine province earlier this month will lead to a wave of local government defaults are overdone. Even so, the provinces face a funding... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set to edge up There are tentative signs that the slowdown in Emerging Market (EM) inflation seen over the past year has bottomed out. We expect EM inflation to quicken over the next six months, mainly due to faster... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep. 12) The latest monetary data have revealed that commercial banks are still using ECB funds to buy government bonds. Worryingly, though, the downturn in lending to the private sector has accelerated. 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will the Mortgage Market Review lead to more remortgaging? The new ‘transitional arrangements’ included in the finalised Mortgage Market Review are to be welcomed, as they will help prevent ‘mortgage prisoners’ being unfairly treated by their existing lender... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Global oil prices to fall further and remain lower We still expect the price of a barrel of Brent to drop back to around $85 next year, despite threats of a complete halt to Iranian oil exports. Our forecast would also be well below the “fair price”... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Strong payrolls survey encouraging for third-quarter GDP The recent strength in non-farm payroll data, which have showed solid gains in both employment and average weekly earnings, indicates that an improvement in third-quarter wages and salaries growth... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
