Asia Economics Update More rate cuts likely in the Philippines next year The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) cut its key policy rate by 25bp today, as expected. The benign outlook for inflation and worries over growth prospects were the main factors behind the... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Income protection still problematic, but the worst may have passed The results from the latest IPD/Strutt & Parker Lease Events Review, including more break clauses being exercised and the tenant default rate rising, confirm that the past year has been another tough... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Provisional GDP (Q3 12) Not only did the UK pull out of its double-dip in Q3, but the 1% quarterly rise in GDP was a fair bit better than expected. However, it is hard to tell how much of this was due to temporary factors... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian government too optimistic on deficit reduction Earlier today we attended a meeting with Hungarian Minister of Economy, Zoltan Csefalvay. We left with the impression that the government’s plans for deficit reduction are still too optimistic and... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Have Irish commercial property values reached a floor? The tone of both of today’s commercial property data releases was downbeat. Although the latest Bank of England survey showed that credit supply in the sector has improved slightly, borrowers are not... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Nominal GDP target not a silver bullet The idea of nominal GDP targeting is gaining ground in academic circles as an alternative way for policymakers to boost the struggling economy when interest rates are close to zero. The case for a... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Inflationary pressures easing in the Gulf Recent activity data provide further evidence that the Gulf economies are slowing. The good news is that inflationary pressures are easing at the same time. This will boost households’ real incomes... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update False dawn for property Some commentators have turned optimistic about the outlook for Chinese residential property. We remain of the view that, with inventories still high, a big pick-up in property investment is unlikely... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode ahead of election After the fireworks at the last FOMC meeting in mid-September, when the Fed launched an open-ended QE3 and strengthened its forward-looking guidance on leaving its policy rate at near-zero, the two... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still overly optimistic on outlook The Bank's October Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents an overly optimistic outlook for Canada's economy. While weak foreign demand restrains Canada's exports, flagging domestic business confidence... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is a helicopter drop the answer? A so-called “helicopter drop” of money is generally seen as the nuclear option which will boost the economy if all else fails. However, it is not necessarily the radical step that it might seem. 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Q3 GDP growth has downside risk Even though our 1.3% estimate for annualised third-quarter GDP growth is already well below the consensus forecast of 1.8%, we're a little concerned that growth could turn out to be even weaker... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep. 12) September’s rise in new home sales is another sign that homebuyers are becoming more willing and more able to splash out on a new home. 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can the US shrug off a euro-zone recession? We expect the euro-zone to experience a deep recession next year but the US to grow steadily, reflecting the region-specific nature of the crisis in Europe, improving fundamentals in the US and the... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rate cut in November now looks off the cards South African inflation surprised to the upside in September, and we think it is likely to accelerate further to peak at around 6% y/y in early 2013. As such, we now think the Reserve Bank will keep... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
