Europe Economics Focus Would a euro break-up be worse than the Lehmans crisis? The economic and financial effects of one or two small economies leaving the euro-zone would not necessarily be major, but the initial impact of a larger collapse would be rather more serious... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian economy could be region’s largest by 2014 The forthcoming rebasing and revision of GDP data in Nigeria will change little on the ground, but it could leave the country on track to overtake South Africa as the region’s largest economy by 2014... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) The latest household borrowing indicators seemed to reinforce the positive news from last week’s GDP data. But in the face of continued declines in real pay, a pick-up in borrowing may be a symptom of... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rate cuts in Colombia dependent upon global weakening The Colombian central bank (BANREP) appears to have signalled that further interest rates cuts are contingent upon a deterioration in the global environment. We think that a deepening of the euro-zone... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The acceleration in the MPC’s preferred measure of broad money growth supports the picture from the recent GDP figures that there has been an underlying improvement in the economy. This could help to... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Q3/Sep.) Measured as a share of outstanding loans, lenders’ exposure to commercial property hit a seven and a half year low in Q3. Nevertheless, credit conditions in the commercial property sector are unlikely... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Sep.) The news that mortgage lending is rising while mortgage rates are dropping may be a sign that the FLS is starting to make an impact. But the changes are marginal, and it will take a lot more than a... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Downside risks to dominate A powerful cocktail of cyclical and structural factors is likely to maintain the downward pressure on commodity prices over the coming months. The launch of QE3 has failed to provide the sustained... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa is still the region’s laggard Growth across sub-Saharan Africa continues to hold up well, despite a weak global economic backdrop. Most countries have now released Q2 GDP data, with particularly strong performances recorded in... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Treasuries rightly shrug off stronger-than-expected US Q3 GDP 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada not immune to potential sub-prime problems The sub-prime mortgage crisis is often miscast as the cause of the US housing bust and that because Canada's sub-prime industry is supposedly much smaller in comparison, fears of a similar housing... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan is fast approaching its own fiscal cliff The government is fast approaching a “fiscal cliff”. An extraordinary session of parliament is meeting from Monday (29th), in which the government will try to force the passage of deficit-covering... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Election going down to the wire Regardless of who wins the Presidential election, the chances of the victor having a compliant Congress appear to be fading fast. So even if Romney won, the most likely scenario is still that a deal... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Should we worry about Asia's current account trends? Most Asian economies have either seen their current account surpluses decline or their deficits increase in recent quarters, which has raised fears that the region is vulnerable to a balance of... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the core softening its stance? Developments over the past week or so suggest that the core euro-zone governments’ attitudes towards the peripheral economies currently receiving bail-outs may be mellowing. But while this reduces the... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly King rules out more unconventional steps In his speech last week, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King left the door open to more quantitative easing, but appeared to rule out any steps towards more unconventional policy measures, including... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
