UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Sep. 12) There was a further slight uptick in mortgage approvals in September, but it would be premature to view this as the start of a sustained recovery in the housing market. The improvement was modest, and... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banks still reducing their exposures to the periphery The core euro-zone banks continued to reduce their claims on the region’s peripheral economies in Q2. And despite recent hopes that the worst of the euro-zone debt crisis may now be over, we expect... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US banks cut their exposure to German banks New figures show that US banks have not just continued to reduce their exposure to those euro-zone nations most in trouble, but they have also started to trim their exposure to German banks. This... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fears of new agricultural export bans look overdone Talk of widespread export bans has continued to boost the prices of agricultural commodities over the last few days, but the basis for this speculation remains flimsy. The immediate focus is the... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Devaluation of Venezuelan bolivar on the cards for 2013 The fact that over half of FX transactions in Venezuela have already been forced onto the black market – where the bolivar trades at much weaker rates – means that the country has already seen a sharp... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why China & Brazil must become more alike Rapid development in Brazil and China has been driven by radically different growth models: whereas Brazil has relied on high levels of consumption, China has depended on high rates of investment. But... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Recovery still fragile The global recovery has slowed once more and growth is likely to remain subdued for at least another year. Admittedly, prospects for the US are relatively bright, but this is not sufficient to offset... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Export slump will drag on Q3 GDP The weakness in the global economy in the third quarter has weighed heavily on Japan’s exporters. Despite the small rise in September, exports fell sharply over the quarter as a whole and will act as... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How would markets respond to a broken debt rule? There is a significant chance that the Office for Budget Responsibility judges in the Autumn Statement that the Chancellor is likely to miss his secondary target for debt as a share of GDP to be... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: capital outflows still a cause for concern Having accelerated towards the end of last year, capital outflows from Russia have eased in recent quarters. Nevertheless, they remain substantial. And with the Central Bank now forecasting a current... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are mortgage borrowers deleveraging? Despite a sharp rise in the household saving ratio, there is no evidence that households are proactively reducing the size of their mortgage debt. Deleveraging will be a long, drawn-out affair. 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business investment outlook less encouraging Despite the global economic slowdown, Canadian business investment is just about holding up, largely thanks to the strength of engineering and construction projects. All things considered, we think... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Have Asia’s exports turned a corner? The September trade data reported so far in Asia were generally much better than the consensus had expected. Nonetheless, we think a sustained rebound in Asia’s exports is unlikely anytime soon. 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can Spain really have its cake and eat it? Speculation built last week that Spain is finally about to ask for a bail-out and hence trigger the European Central Bank’s new bond-buying programme, giving Spanish bond yields another nudge... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
