Latin America Economics Update Chilean growth firmer than September data suggest Chile’s latest economic activity data are not as bad as they first appear. Much of the weakness in retail sales and manufacturing can be put down to the extended independence holidays. That said, we... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Still no game changer from Bank of Japan The Bank of Japan’s further loosening of monetary policy today left markets underwhelmed. There is still no real sense that the Bank is getting ahead of the curve rather than playing catch up to... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Further consensus growth downgrades likely lie ahead The downgraded consensus of private-sector GDP forecasts surveyed by the federal government for its upcoming fiscal update still looks overly optimistic. Further negative growth surprises to the... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook A renewed struggle in store for risky assets The boost to risky assets from QE3 may already be over. The prices of equities and commodities have generally fallen since mid-September. And while the ECB brought the euro-zone back from the brink in... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct.) September’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey continued the run of favourable economic data seen in recent weeks. But given that real incomes will soon start to be squeezed by rising utility prices, this... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia budget plans: still banking on high oil prices Russia’s draft budget for 2013-15 implies that fiscal policy will become far more restrictive over the next three years. But it is doubtful that the government will be able to stick to its plans to... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct.) October’s deterioration in the euro-zone EC business and consumer surveys supported other evidence that the economy started Q4 on a very weak note. The fall in the headline Economic Sentiment... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update ADP revamp should be treated with caution Recent changes to the way the ADP calculates its measure of employment means it now has an even closer historical relationship with the official payroll data. But what really matters is whether it is... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are commercial property yields in Russia set to rise? To date, despite a sharp drop in investment volumes and growing evidence of a sharp slowdown in GDP growth, property yields in Moscow have not risen as we anticipated. But while a case can be made... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Does the price of gold follow a seasonal pattern? November is the month when the price of gold is traditionally assumed to be boosted the most by a seasonal pick-up in demand. There does indeed appear to be a seasonal pattern in the gold price but... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India to continue resisting rate cut pressure The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key policy rate unchanged today in the face of government pressure on it to cut. With inflation likely to remain high, we suspect the RBI will continue to... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Yanukovich’s victory is bad news for Ukraine With 70% of the vote now counted, Ukraine’s ruling coalition looks likely to maintain its majority in parliament (although by a dangerously thin margin). The good news is that the election has so far... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market too hawkish on most EM interest rates in 2013 We expect relatively weak economic growth to keep interest rates in most emerging markets lower than the market currently anticipates next year. The key exceptions are India, where we suspect that... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Currency manipulation” tag would still carry weight A declaration by a US administration that China is a “currency manipulator” may have no immediate consequences but it would open the door to more substantive trade sanctions against China in future. 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Risks of global food price shock continue to recede The jump in grains prices due to the exceptionally hot summer in the US still feeds headlines warning of another global food price shock similar to that in 2007-08. More recently, the spectre of... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
