US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) We doubt that October's Employment Report is either strong enough or weak enough to have any marked impact on next week's presidential election. Non-farm payrolls increased by a better than expected... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Oct.) A modest rise in construction activity in October did not change the bigger picture of a sector that is still very subdued. And in the commercial sector, activity barely moved from the two and a half... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How "good" economic data can be "bad" for commodities The slide in commodity prices today following the release of an apparently strong US Employment Report underlines their sensitivity to expectations of further monetary support. As it happens, the pace... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs improve, but EM manufacturing growth still sluggish The PMI data released across the emerging world over the past few days showed some signs of improvement, but the bigger picture is that manufacturers are still struggling – particularly in the smaller... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish stock market rally looks overdone Turkish equities have risen by over 40% since the start of the year, but we think that macroeconomic frailties and weaker global risk appetite could bring this rally to an abrupt end. 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Fillip to US equities from QE3 fades The US S&P 500 fell 2% in October as the boost from the anticipation of QE3 faded in the wake of its launch, and worries began to surface about the outlook for profits amid the Q3 earnings season... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) A mild improvement in the global economy appears to be supporting American industry while, at the same time, the housing recovery has continued to strengthen. 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Despite the increase in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a near-five-year high of 72.2 in October, from 68.4 in September, annualised consumption growth is unlikely to post a... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB adamant about conditions for bond buying The ECB seems set to remain on standby this month. With just the announcement of its Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme still buoying market sentiment, the Bank has yet to be called upon... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ugandan rate cutting cycle close to an end The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 12.50% today and, looking ahead, we think there is scope for one further rate cut before the easing cycle concludes. 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What to make of the decline in the jumbo mortgage rate spread? At face value, the decline in the spread of jumbo mortgage interest rates over the rates on conforming loans is one of a number of signs that restrictions on the availability of jumbo mortgages have... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic moves to the zero bound After today’s decision to cut interest rates all the way to the zero bound, we expect the Czech National Bank to move into the realms of unconventional monetary policy measures next year. 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: drop in industry a payback for summer gains The sharp fall in Brazilian industrial production in September is partly a payback from the large monthly increases in output seen in July and August. The bigger picture is that policy stimulus has... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will German property rents be immune to the downturn? Recent business surveys do nothing to undermine our forecast that Germany will lapse back into recession next year. Admittedly, that recession should be mild. But that is unlikely to prevent... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Crunch time looms for Greece Over the next couple of crucial weeks, we suspect that Greek and euro-zone policymakers will hatch a deal to prevent, at least temporarily, the collapse of Greece’s rescue package. But as always... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
