UK Commercial Property Update Leisure property to stay ahead of the pack It is no surprise to us that leisure has recently been one of the best performing segments of the commercial property market. And with consumer spending on recreational activities set to expand at a... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ukraine wheat export “ban” remains a sideshow The ongoing debate over whether or not Ukraine is set to ban wheat exports misses the bigger points that (i) Ukraine has already exported almost all of the grain it was expected to this year, and (ii)... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Is the pace of Nigerian credit growth a cause for concern? After Nigeria’s banking crisis of 2008/09, some commentators are starting to voice fresh concerns about the recent rapid pace of growth in private sector credit. But while we share some of these... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) All of the small month-on-month fall in the CoreLogic house price index in September was down to predictable seasonal factors. After accounting for the usual slowdown at this time of year, house... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican auto sector revving up for stronger exports We estimate that an increase in motor vehicle exports to the US could add around 0.5% to Mexican GDP in each of the next four years. This supports our expectation that the Mexican economy is... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) China’s consumer price inflation was stable in October, we believe. Looking ahead, both inflation and economic activity look likely to pick up some pace in the next few months, weakening the case for... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the UK stock market? We expect a weak economy and a partial break-up of EMU to weigh on UK equities through the end of next year – our forecast is that the FTSE 100 will end 2013 around the 5,000 mark. Although we are... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update External financing continues to trouble resource-poor countries Talks between Egypt and the IMF this month have focused attention back onto the external financing requirements of the region’s resource-poor economies. But so long as their oil-rich neighbours... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s industrial production figures supported the latest CIPS/Markit activity surveys in suggesting that the economic recovery is quickly losing momentum again. 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Oct.) A fourth consecutive monthly fall in house prices points to a strengthening downward trend in the housing market. With demand constrained by concerns over employment and incomes, this trend is set to... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct.) October’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided evidence that, following Q3’s generally positive news from the high street, a retail recovery seems to be fizzling out. 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Oct.) A fourth consecutive monthly fall in house prices points to a strengthening downward trend in the housing market. With demand constrained by concerns over employment and incomes, this trend is set to... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian central bank set for a period on the sidelines The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its cash rate at 3.25% today. Unless global conditions take a sharp turn for the worse, we now expect the RBA to remain on hold for the next year or so. We... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Further slump in wage growth unlikely We doubt that the fall in the annual growth rate of average hourly earnings to a record low in October is the start of another downward leg that will eventually end in outright declines in earnings... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Would a Romney win be unambiguously positive for stocks? 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Markets may fear uncertainty more than they like Romney The conventional wisdom is that investors prefer Republican Presidents, but we would suggest that every election is different. Romney’s plans would tax equities more favourably and lighten the burden... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
