UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct. 12) October’s official retail sales figures support the timelier surveys in suggesting that the recovery on the high street is losing momentum ahead of the crucial Christmas shopping season. 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A grim set of Q3 data Third quarter GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe make for pretty grim reading. Output contracted on a quarterly basis in three of the five countries that reported figures and the business surveys... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New line-up dents but doesn’t derail hopes of reform The unveiling of China’s new leadership in the Great Hall of the People today has dented hopes of economic policy reform. Of the three “reformist” candidates thought to have had a chance of joining... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will China’s new leadership have an appetite for reform? 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal cliff still likely to be averted We still expect the newly re-elected President Obama and Congress to reach an agreement to avert most of the scheduled tax hikes and spending cuts that would otherwise kick in at the start of next... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is mortgage demand picking up? Conflicting signals make it hard to draw firm conclusions, but the balance of evidence increasingly suggests that mortgage-dependent buyers are starting to make more of a contribution to the housing... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Oct.) October’s retail sales figures suggest that consumption has lost a bit of momentum ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season. If this was due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy, then sales will... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we worry about pork prices again? A new government scheme to stabilise China’s volatile pork market appears to be succeeding. As a result, the re-emergence of pork-driven inflation that some have started to warn about is unlikely to... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Bank of Ghana to keep rates on hold throughout 2013 The Bank of Ghana kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 15.00% today and, with inflation decelerating and concerns over the cedi easing, we expect rates to remain unchanged throughout 2013. 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) Although the Bank of England’s latest Inflation Report showed inflation projected to be broadly at its 2% target at the two year policy horizon, Mervyn King’s comments at the press conference... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Nov.) The Capital Economics Argentina Activity Indicator suggests that Argentina’s economy pulled out of recession in Q3 and is on course to register modest growth in Q4. But this turn-around has been... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What lies behind the IMF’s spat with the euro-zone? The public disagreement between the IMF and euro-zone reveals underlying tensions over whether core euro-zone governments will accept haircuts on their share of Greece’s public debt and concern among... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Ind. Prod. (Sep.) & Greek & Portuguese GDP (Q3) September’s plunge in euro-zone industrial production and the weak Greek and Portuguese Q3 GDP data provided additional firm evidence that the region’s economic problems continue to mount. 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Sep/Oct. 12) The latest labour market figures revealed that while employment has continued to grow, the pace of expansion is slowing. And timelier indicators suggest that the labour market’s recent resilience may... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How effective are Government schemes in supporting new-build? The steady stream of schemes designed to help prospective homeowners buy a new home is helping to underpin new-build sales. But there is no evidence that these schemes are acting as a catalyst for a... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little underlying improvement in Turkey's external deficit The upgrade to Turkey’s credit rating last week came in spite of the fact that there has been little underlying improvement in its sizeable current account deficit. This leaves the economy exposed to... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
