China Economics Update Recovery to fade in 2013 The government is likely to set a low target for growth next year that the economy will beat. But expectations that China’s growth will continue to accelerate through 2013 are likely to be... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus When will the UK housing market turn the corner? With house prices still high and lending criteria tight, the increase in demand necessary to stoke a revival in house prices will not be forthcoming anytime soon. Prices are currently being supported... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria remains the outperformer Sub-Saharan Africa’s three major economies – South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya – have experienced mixed fortunes in the second half of this year. Early estimates of Q3 GDP for Nigeria suggest that the... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Nov.) November’s surprise pick-up in consumer confidence supported yesterday’s CBI Distributive Trades survey in suggesting that consumers have perked up a bit. But the foundations for a sustained... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Euro-zone CPI inflation may have eased further in November 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still standing ready Having boldly pledged to do whatever it takes to save the euro back in the summer, ECB President Mario Draghi has struck a noticeably more cautious tone over recent months. We expect more of the same... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth slows, markets rally A raft of recently released Q3 GDP data for Emerging Europe paints a pretty gloomy picture. The Czech and Hungarian economies are still stuck in recession, while even the region’s better performers –... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is the housing recovery the real deal? The housing recovery faces an array of headwinds, but we continue to think that it is sustainable. Although the recovery remains narrowly dependent on cash buyers and investors, outside of a few... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Nov.) Egyptian financial markets have been battered this month amid a deepening constitutional crisis. 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Less to Chile’s manufacturing surge than meets the eye The sharp pick-up in Chilean manufacturing growth in October gives a misleading impression of the true health of local industry. What’s more, to the extent that there has been a rebound in... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How the core should respond to a euro break-up Sharp appreciations in the euro-zone’s core countries would threaten to damage their exports and GDP in the event of a euro-zone break-up. But there are various policies that could be implemented to... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Sandy having lingering impact on labour market The lingering effects of superstorm Sandy mean that non-farm payroll employment probably increased in net terms by just 75,000 in November, which would be less than half the gain in October. The... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) Although Greece, Portugal and Ireland are making some fiscal progress, Italy and Spain are still struggling to cut their budget deficits 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s happening to China’s unreported copper stocks? The conventional method of estimating China’s copper consumption has probably been exaggerating industrial demand for the red metal since the middle of 2011. This is because it does not allow for... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Nov.) November’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests that the festive period has got off to a good start on the high street. But with pay growth likely to remain weak and unemployment set to rise... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Nov.) November’s EC consumer and business survey does not alter our view that the consensus forecast for the euro-zone economy broadly to stagnate in 2013 is far too optimistic. A deep recession still looks... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
