Nigeria remains the outperformer

Sub-Saharan Africa’s three major economies – South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya – have experienced mixed fortunes in the second half of this year. Early estimates of Q3 GDP for Nigeria suggest that the economy picked up a little pace from Q2, supported in large part by the continued strength of domestic demand. At the other end of the scale, growth in South Africa has slumped to its slowest rate in three years as unrest in the mining sector has dragged on output. Meanwhile, in Kenya growth seems to have stabilised, although it remains weak by recent standards. All told, we think the region’s economy will probably grow by around 4.5% this year – slightly below the average growth rate of 5.5% seen since 2005. Looking ahead, growth is likely to slow a little next year as global headwinds build, but we still think the region will be one of the world’s better performers.