Japan Economics Weekly A look ahead to 2013 In this final Weekly of the year we take a look ahead to some of main events and themes that will shape Japan’s economy in 2013. Key among these are the incoming LDP government’s first budget and the... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) & CPI (Nov.) The 0.1% m/m gain in October's GDP, which partly reflected a rebound in oil and gas extraction, suggests that the economy began the fourth quarter on a somewhat stronger footing. The pace of economic... 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Personal Income/Spend. & Durable Goods (Nov.) November's personal income/spending and durable goods reports suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be a little stronger than we previously thought. We are revising our forecast up from 1.5% to... 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts (Q3) & Public Finances (Nov.) GDP is still estimated to have risen strongly in Q3, but we already have plenty of evidence to suggest that the economy may have contracted in the fourth quarter. Indeed, the UK could already be in a... 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Dec.) December’s sharp drop in consumer confidence suggested that November’s unexpectedly big rise was yet another false dawn. Along with the evidence from Wednesday’s CBI Distributive Trades survey of a... 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Sell-off in commodities may be a sign of things to come 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Recovery still finding its feet China’s economy is recovering, but the Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to a less emphatic rebound than some recent commentary might suggest. Data available so far are consistent... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian GDP growth to slow further in 2013 The unexpectedly sharp slowdown in Colombian GDP growth in Q3 supports our non-consensus view that interest rates are likely to fall further. In fact, we think the central bank is now likely to cut... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov. 12) Another strong gain took existing home sales above the five million mark, and to a three-year high, in November. Moreover, supply conditions tightened further and are consistent with house prices... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct. 12) The 0.3% m/m bounce back in retail sales volumes in October, together with the large increase in wholesale trade reported yesterday, suggest that monthly GDP inched higher, stronger than the... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further easing risks undermining Bank of Japan independence At its Policy Board meeting today, the Bank of Japan extended its asset purchase program and announced a review of its inflation target. Since Sunday’s election, the incoming LDP government has... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will office rental values in Rome fall further than Milan? Recent falls in Italian office rental values are likely to be extended next year. But with a 10% drop in public sector jobs in the pipeline, occupier demand and thus rents, are likely to fall further... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand still waiting on reconstruction boost New Zealand’s economy grew at a very slow pace in Q3. Reconstruction spending should lend some support next year, but a robust pick-up is unlikely. 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing downturn intensifies A prolonged housing downturn means that economic growth will be much weaker over the next two years. Gains in business investment and somewhat better export growth, though, will help to buffer... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Retailers losing their nerve After a sluggish start to high street spending over the festive period, retailers appear to be losing their nerve and engaging in more widespread price discounting. And prospects for next year are not... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will the pent-up demand for housing be unleashed soon? The latest survey on household finances from the Bank of England paints a fairly bleak picture of potential first-time buyers’ finances. And with the average deposit required by lenders still... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
